Mastering Swing Trading: Insights from an Expert Trader
Explore effective swing trading strategies and insights from an experienced trader, focusing on key stocks, market conditions, and the importance of moving averages.
Video Summary
In a recent swing trading school session, an experienced trader shared valuable insights on effective trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of identifying strong setups and market conditions. The trader plans to conduct these sessions daily, focusing on helping participants recognize good trading opportunities. A key aspect of the discussion was the significance of the Average Daily Range (ADR) and Average True Range (ATR) in determining optimal entry points for trades.
The trader highlighted specific stocks, including 'CAN', a Chinese Bitcoin miner, which exhibited a strong setup characterized by significant price movement and support from moving averages. They advised entering trades when stocks are not significantly up compared to their ATR, cautioning that buying after a stock has already moved too much may not yield ideal results. Other notable stocks mentioned included Tesla, Workhorse, and CRSP, each with varying degrees of setup quality. The trader shared personal experiences, including a loss on Workhorse, and discussed strategies for managing trades, such as utilizing moving averages as trailing stops.
The session also delved into the importance of identifying stocks in hot sectors, particularly cryptocurrency, where significant gains can be achieved if trades are executed correctly. The trader encouraged participants to focus on strong stocks that demonstrate consolidation and support on moving averages, aiming for consistent profitability through disciplined trading methods. They emphasized the need to memorize setups and effectively use trailing stops to maximize profits, sharing notable trades like TTD, which was bought at opening range highs, and Workhorse, which showed strong support on the 20-day moving average.
As the discussion progressed, the trader underscored the importance of patience in swing trading compared to day trading, suggesting that successful trades can lead to substantial profits. They highlighted the significance of identifying momentum leaders and stocks that build higher lows, utilizing technical indicators such as the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. Stocks like Peloton, which saw a significant move after March lows, and Chewy, which experienced a remarkable 230% increase, were also discussed.
The trader shared their personal trading journey, starting with an initial investment of $5,000 to $7,000, and acknowledged the challenges faced early on, including a significant loss of $58,000 on Tesla. They discussed strategies for trading in bear markets, focusing on mean reversion trades, and emphasized the importance of letting stocks move to realize potential profits. The session concluded with a brief Q&A, where the trader evaluated specific stocks based on their current setups, reinforcing the need for traders to build a database of successful patterns for better decision-making.
The speaker also discussed the advantages of using triple ETFs over individual stocks, highlighting the performance of specific stocks like GFI, which has shown significant movement within a trading range of mid-140s to low mid-1500s. They predicted a potential breakout or breakdown that could lead to a 300 to 500 point move. The importance of using moving averages for trading decisions was reiterated, specifically mentioning a strategy to sell when a stock closes below the 10-day moving average.
Throughout the session, the trader emphasized the necessity of following strict trading rules and identifying strong setups. They shared personal experiences with stocks like mRNA, BMTX, and others, detailing their buying and selling decisions. Key points included the significance of higher lows, tight ranges, and breakout candles on higher volume as indicators of potential success. The speaker also discussed trading strategies for different time frames, including one-month and three-month scans, and provided formulas for identifying strong stocks based on price gains and volume.
The conversation also touched on the current performance of stocks, particularly Roku, which is struggling to maintain its 20-day moving average, indicating weakness in the market. The speaker emphasized the importance of not blaming market makers for losses and suggested using Interactive Brokers and Center Point as preferred brokers. They conducted a six-month gainer scan, identifying 47 stocks with significant gains, and discussed various setups for trading these stocks, stressing the need for stocks to have high average daily ranges (ADR) for better trading opportunities.
In conclusion, the trader reiterated the importance of recognizing patterns in stock movements and adapting strategies based on market conditions. They encouraged participants to study specific trading setups and patterns to improve their trading success, emphasizing that significant profits can be made during bullish periods when the 10-day moving average rises above the 20-day moving average. The session provided a comprehensive overview of trading strategies, market observations, and specific stock analyses, leaving participants with valuable insights to enhance their trading skills.
Click on any timestamp in the keypoints section to jump directly to that moment in the video. Enhance your viewing experience with seamless navigation. Enjoy!
Keypoints
00:00:01
Swing Trading School
The speaker introduces a swing trading school that will commence shortly, indicating a focus on scans and good setups for trading. They express the intention to conduct this school almost daily, emphasizing the importance of understanding average daily range (ADR) in trading strategies.
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00:00:45
Costco Trading
The speaker advises against trading Costco, noting its low average daily range of 1.5, suggesting there are no viable trading opportunities in this stock at the moment.
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00:01:36
Codex Trading Setup
The speaker discusses Codex, a Bitcoin-related stock, highlighting its potential as a good trading setup. They mention that it has experienced a significant move from its lows, increasing by 60%, and has found support on the 10 and 20-day moving averages. The stock has been moving sideways for two weeks, building higher lows, and is identified as a five-star swing trading setup.
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00:02:23
Average True Range Concept
The speaker begins the swing trading school by explaining the average true range (ATR) concept, which is displayed on their charts. They emphasize the importance of sizing down the ATR for better visibility and understanding, noting that the current ATR is 27 cents while the stock is up 37 cents, indicating it may be too late to buy.
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00:04:00
Entry Strategy
The speaker advises caution in buying stocks that have already exceeded their average daily range for the day. They suggest that ideal entry points are when stocks are up only a third to two-thirds of their ATR, and they recommend waiting for a pullback before entering a trade.
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00:05:29
Market Trends
The speaker highlights the current market trends, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, noting that Bitcoin and Ethereum are breaking out from multi-year bases. They stress the importance of scanning for stocks in these hot sectors to identify potential trading opportunities.
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00:06:06
NIO Stock Analysis
The speaker provides an analysis of NIO, indicating that it needs to break above the 13 area to show strength. They mention that it appears to be facing resistance at the 20-day moving average and express skepticism about its current setup, suggesting it may be too late to buy.
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00:06:40
Trading Setup Evaluation
The speaker expresses a personal opinion on a trading setup, describing it as a 'three-star setup at best' and advises to avoid it. They indicate a need to check on their own trades before continuing the discussion on swing trading.
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00:09:02
Workhorse Trading Experience
The speaker reflects on their trading experience with Workhorse, mentioning a significant loss of $200,000 incurred on Thursday after being stopped out twice while holding 150,000 shares. They express frustration as they now only hold 100,000 shares while the stock appears to be moving positively.
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00:10:18
Swing Trading Method Introduction
The speaker introduces a simple swing trading method that they believe could double an account year after year, especially in a favorable market. They emphasize the method's simplicity and effectiveness, preparing to demonstrate setups they have traded.
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00:11:05
Recent Trade Example
The speaker discusses a recent buy from Thursday, explaining the importance of observing a big move followed by consolidation and support on moving averages. They detail their entry point at approximately $68, noting that the stock could potentially rise to $80. They recommend selling half of the position after three to five days and using the 10-day moving average as a trailing stop.
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00:12:29
TDOC Trading Strategy
The speaker shares their trading strategy for TDOC, which they bought after it reported earnings. They highlight the stock's momentum and its ability to find support on moving averages. Their entry point was around $225.80, and they discuss using the low of the day as a stop-loss strategy, adjusting it based on the stock's performance.
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00:13:29
Current Position in VIR
The speaker describes their current position in VIR, noting it is in a larger base and has been gradually increasing in value. They mention that the stock is 'surfing' the 20-day moving average and that they will exit if it closes below this line. They express optimism about a potential breakout in the near future.
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00:14:17
AVLR Stock Analysis
The speaker discusses the potential for AVLR to rise above 60, particularly if it breaks through the mid-40s to low 49s range. They highlight a recent support bounce at the 50-day moving average and note that the stock has consistently built higher lows, leading to a breakout with increased volume. The speaker suggests that traders could have sold half of their position after three to five days, using the 10-day moving average as a trailing stop.
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00:15:31
D-Dog Trade Insights
The speaker mentions being already invested in D-Dog, which they describe as a five-star setup. They emphasize the importance of focusing on strong stocks that have made significant moves, noting that D-Dog reclaimed its 10-day moving average after briefly undercutting it. The stock has shown a pattern of higher lows and tight ranges, indicating a potential for further gains. The speaker advises selling half of the position at strategic points while using the 10-day moving average for guidance.
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00:16:26
Lake Stock Performance
The speaker reflects on their experience with Lake, which they bought at a certain point but saw it close back into its range without triggering a stop loss. They describe Lake as a momentum leader that has been building higher lows and tightening its range, suggesting that it has the potential to break out soon.
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00:17:00
Peloton Trading Experience
The speaker expresses regret over passing on Peloton, which made a significant move after the March lows, doubling in value. They note that Peloton found support on a rising 20-day moving average and tightened its setup before breaking out on higher volume. The speaker mentions re-buying Peloton at an average price of 63.50, indicating that it has been finding consistent support on the 20-day moving average.
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00:18:31
Chewy Stock Overview
Chewy is highlighted as a stock with a five-star chart that has experienced a remarkable 230% increase. The speaker notes the influence of a prominent figure on Twitter who has been promoting the stock, suggesting that it has characteristics of a 'pump stock.' They emphasize the importance of recognizing where strong stocks find support, typically on the 10-day or 20-day moving averages, while slower stocks may find support on the 50-day.
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00:19:28
Trailing Stop Strategy
The speaker discusses the effectiveness of using the 10-day moving average as a trailing stop for trading positions. They illustrate this with an example where a stock closed above the 10-day moving average, allowing traders to avoid being stopped out. The potential gain from this strategy could have reached 185%, emphasizing the importance of patience in swing trading compared to day trading.
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00:21:05
Successful Trade Example
The speaker shares a personal trading experience from March, where they anticipated a breakout after observing the stock surfacing the 10-day moving average. They bought into the stock before it broke out, adding more during the opening range. Despite being shaken out temporarily, they re-entered and profited significantly, highlighting the importance of memorizing successful setups for trading.
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00:22:06
Potential for High Earnings
The speaker emphasizes that mastering just one trading setup can lead to substantial earnings, suggesting that traders could potentially make millions. They reference a specific stock, TTD, which they bought at opening range highs, indicating it was a five-star setup with expectations of reaching over $500. They also mention a similar setup with Zoom, predicting it could reach $300.
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00:23:38
Stock Analysis and Entry Points
The speaker analyzes various stocks, including APT and SR, discussing their trading strategies. They describe APT as a secondary entry setup that showed a significant move off the lows, finding support on the rising 20-day moving average. For SR, they recount a mistake of being shaken out at $6 but later re-entering, which led to a substantial move. They note the importance of following trading rules to avoid losses.
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00:24:41
Market Trends and Strength
The speaker identifies a stock that exhibited significant relative strength during a market pullback in early July. This observation underscores the importance of recognizing strong stocks in weak markets, which can provide lucrative trading opportunities.
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00:24:49
Stock Performance
A particular stock demonstrated exceptional strength, quickly rebounding to all-time highs and achieving a remarkable 900% increase from its lows within a few months. The speaker emphasized that this stock was signaling its intent to rise further, especially if market weaknesses subsided. They purchased the stock during a live stream at the opening range highs and have been selling small portions daily while using a 10-day moving average as a trailing stop.
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00:26:01
Trading Strategy
The speaker discussed another stock that showed significant strength, riding the 10-day moving average and breaking out after a narrow range candle. Although they were stopped out at one point, they re-entered the trade after observing a pullback that found support on the rising 50-day moving average, leading to a breakout on high volume. This stock gapped up and continued to show strong performance, illustrating the behavior of leading stocks.
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00:27:01
Stock Analysis
The speaker analyzed a stock named Workhorse, which followed a similar pattern of a significant move, a pullback to support on a rising 20-day moving average, and the formation of higher lows before a breakout. They mentioned holding 100,000 shares and considering adding another 50,000 to 100,000 shares based on its performance. Additionally, they reflected on a stock called Codex, which they initially bought but were stopped out of, only to re-enter after it found support on the 50-day moving average.
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00:28:01
Technical Indicators
The speaker asserted that the only technical indicators necessary for successful trading are the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. They dismissed the need for intraday charts or level two data, claiming that such information is merely noise. They emphasized that understanding these moving averages is sufficient to achieve significant financial success in trading.
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00:29:00
Market Trends
The speaker briefly mentioned another stock, Mara, which had returned to high levels, expressing confidence that it could reach $5 to $6. They concluded the session by indicating their intention to conduct short daily trading sessions, encouraging viewers to memorize the discussed setups and hinting at future discussions about market scams.
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00:30:07
Hot Sectors
The speaker defined a 'hot sector' as one where multiple stocks experience significant gains, citing the COVID-19 sector as an example, where stocks have surged by 500% to over 1000% in recent months. They highlighted the importance of identifying good setups within such sectors for potential trading opportunities.
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00:30:36
Hot Sectors
The speaker emphasizes the importance of investing in stocks within 'hot sectors' where multiple stocks are experiencing significant upward movement, rather than selecting random stocks in stagnant sectors. This strategy is crucial for identifying potential winners in the market.
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00:31:11
Entry Strategy
To enter a stock position effectively, the speaker suggests buying at the opening range highs, specifically when the stock breaks out of the first one-minute or five-minute candle. He notes that it's not necessary to focus on intraday charts; instead, one should observe breakouts on the daily chart, using NVAX as an example, where a breakout above $150 would be significant.
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00:32:01
Average True Range
The speaker discusses the concept of Average True Range (ATR) in relation to stock price movements. For instance, if a stock opens at $153 after closing at $147, and the ATR is 13.6, the stock's movement is less than half of its average range, indicating a potential buying opportunity. He advises setting a stop-loss at the previous day's low and suggests selling half of the position after three to five days while trailing the stop using the 10-day moving average.
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00:32:45
Successful Trade Example
The speaker recounts a successful trade involving a COVID-19 vaccine stock, which he describes as a 'five-star setup.' After buying the stock, he sold it prematurely in the high $70s, despite it later doubling in value. He reflects on the difficulty of holding onto significant gains, noting that the stock had not yet closed below the 10-day moving average, which would have indicated a sell signal.
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00:34:17
Focus on Key Indicators
The speaker advises against overcomplicating trading strategies by focusing on too many indicators. He emphasizes the importance of the 10-day moving average as a key indicator for making trading decisions, suggesting that traders should not concern themselves with external factors like economic news or political events, but rather focus on price action relative to the moving average.
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00:35:03
Position Sizing
Position sizing is discussed in relation to account size. For accounts under $100,000, the speaker recommends investing no more than 25% of the account in any single stock. For accounts between $100,000 and a few million, he suggests limiting investments to 20% per stock. He notes that for accounts over a few million, even smaller percentages may be prudent, but the general guideline remains around 20% for any given stock.
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00:35:57
Investment Strategy
The speaker prefers smaller positions in stocks unless there is high conviction and liquidity. They advise that a fully invested portfolio should not exceed four to five stocks and recommend against using margin for small accounts to avoid significant losses.
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00:36:34
Current Portfolio
Currently, the speaker holds 24 stocks in their portfolio, including three short positions. They mention having a significant short position in Tesla but have recently exited it after incurring a $65,000 loss on remaining shares. They locked in profits on a previous Friday but note that Tesla's performance has been volatile, with potential for a breakout if it surpasses the $1,500 mark.
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00:38:01
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses the market's strength, indicating that despite relative weakness on a previous Friday, the market did not break down. They express skepticism about the SPY index, suggesting it is too slow for trading, and recommend focusing on other indices with higher Average Daily Range (ADR), such as USB Excel with a 4% ADR.
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00:39:12
Trading Practices
The speaker emphasizes the importance of using stop market orders to prevent significant losses if a stock's price drops unexpectedly. They mention their substantial trading capital, approximately $17 million, which is more than most participants in the discussion.
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00:40:10
Swing Trading Insights
As the session progresses, the speaker plans to conduct another short or swing trading school, focusing on trimming and trailing their positions. They note that many stocks broke out recently, and the strategy now involves holding onto these positions without selling too early, using Jumia as an example.
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00:41:25
Stock Analysis
The speaker addresses a question about Shopify, clarifying that there was no trading setup for the stock recently. They plan to demonstrate effective setups for Shopify, explaining that a strong stock typically makes a significant move before pulling back, which is a key concept in their swing trading school.
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00:42:22
Moving Averages
The discussion begins with the importance of moving averages in trading, specifically highlighting the 10-day and 20-day simple moving averages (SMA) as the most effective. The speaker notes that the best setups occur when stocks build higher lows and surf these moving averages, particularly the 10 and 20-day SMAs.
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00:43:43
Example of Shopify
The speaker provides a detailed example of Shopify, describing it as a 'perfect' entry point. Shopify experienced a significant move, followed by a period of consolidation where it built higher lows and formed a tight range before breaking out. This setup is characterized as a five-star setup, demonstrating the effectiveness of the moving averages.
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00:45:01
Trading Strategy
The speaker elaborates on the trading strategy used, mentioning the importance of entering trades based on the opening range highs, which can be defined by the first one-minute, five-minute, or 30-minute candles. The discussion includes a specific instance where the speaker and others bought Shopify during a live stream, noting the stock's behavior of pulling back and finding support on the 20-day moving average.
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00:45:31
Example of Tesla
Another example provided is Tesla, which also exhibited a strong move and found support on the rising 10-day moving average. The speaker emphasizes that the strongest stocks tend to find support on the 10-day moving average early in their moves. Tesla's price action included building higher lows and surfing the 20-day moving average, leading to an anticipated breakout.
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00:46:44
Market Behavior and Predictions
The speaker reflects on the current market behavior, noting that while they bought Tesla, it may not break out immediately. They express a cautious optimism, suggesting that if Tesla continues to build higher lows and finds support on the 20-day moving average, it could eventually break out, potentially reaching a price of $2000. The speaker advises against forming strong opinions, emphasizing the need to let the price action dictate the next steps.
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00:47:25
Stock Trading Strategy
The speaker emphasizes that price is the only factor that matters in trading. They reference a stock, Fastly, which had a significant price movement a couple of months prior, noting that they purchased it around $30 or $29 during earnings. The speaker describes a trading strategy involving the use of the 10-day moving average as a trailing stop, suggesting that traders should sell a portion of their holdings after a few days of gains and adjust their stop-loss to break even. They illustrate this with a recent breakout of the stock, indicating that strong stocks behave predictably in strong markets.
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00:48:49
Momentum Market Definition
The speaker defines a momentum market, particularly focusing on the NASDAQ, which they prefer over the S&P 500 or NYSE. They explain that a momentum market is characterized by rising 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with the 10-day average positioned above the 20-day average. The speaker shares their personal success, stating they have achieved over 200% gains in the past four months, highlighting the importance of recognizing market conditions for effective trading.
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00:49:46
Market Conditions for Trading
The speaker discusses the varying conditions of the market, noting that not all periods are suitable for swing trading. They caution against trading in a declining market, where the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are both sloping down, as this leads to a high failure rate for trades. They reflect on their recent trading experiences, indicating that they have successfully navigated a strong market, contrasting it with previous periods that were less favorable for trading.
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00:50:39
Recent Trading Performance
The speaker shares a personal anecdote about recovering from a significant loss of approximately $1.5 million incurred from shorting a stock on July 29. They express satisfaction in having regained this loss within a week, illustrating the volatility and rapid recovery possible in a strong market. They note that this recovery represented about 7-8% of their account, emphasizing the forgiving nature of a good market where traders can bounce back quickly from setbacks.
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00:51:34
Market Analysis and Setups
The speaker reflects on the market conditions of late 2018, describing it as a poor environment for swing trading due to consistently declining moving averages. They highlight the importance of recognizing good market setups, stating that in a strong market, numerous stocks will present viable trading opportunities, whereas in a weak market, only a few setups will emerge. This insight underscores the necessity for traders to adapt their strategies based on prevailing market conditions.
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00:52:39
Trading Strategies
The speaker emphasizes the importance of trading setups, particularly when the 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average. They advocate for trading these setups regardless of complexity, suggesting that simple moving averages can yield significant returns, potentially achieving 100% to 500% gains annually over time.
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00:53:48
Daily Trading Concepts
The speaker intends to introduce a new trading concept each day, focusing on identifying optimal setups. They express a commitment to keeping the discussions concise while providing valuable insights into trading strategies.
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00:54:15
Stock Analysis
In response to a question about XP as a potential buy, the speaker expresses uncertainty, prompting the audience to evaluate the setup themselves. They later conclude that XP is not a good setup at the moment, noting that it was better the previous week and requires tighter price action.
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00:55:21
Market Conditions
The speaker discusses the stock APT, indicating that it is currently performing well, as it is trading along the 65 EMA on the 60-minute chart. They mention using the 20-day moving average as a stop-loss, explaining that stocks in a range can fluctuate without indicating a definitive trend.
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00:56:31
Trading Patterns
The speaker highlights the concept of volatility contraction patterns (VCP), noting that successful traders, including Miravini and Dan Sanger, utilize similar principles. They explain that a strong stock often experiences a significant move followed by a period of consolidation before making another upward move, emphasizing that this timeless setup has been consistent throughout stock market history.
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00:57:55
Pattern Recognition
The speaker stresses the importance of pattern recognition in trading, suggesting that traders should build a mental database of stock patterns from various decades. They recommend documenting these patterns in a real database or a folder of screenshots for easy reference, reinforcing that successful trading relies on recognizing and understanding these patterns.
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00:58:02
Influential Literature
The speaker praises William O'Neill's book 'How to Make Money in Stocks,' calling it one of the five best trading books ever written, indicating its significant impact on their trading philosophy.
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00:58:14
Mentorship and Learning
Reflecting on their journey, the speaker shares that they had many mentors and followed various traders on social media, some of whom turned out to be frauds. They emphasize the importance of learning from different sources and developing a personalized trading approach that works for the individual.
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00:58:44
Stop-Loss Strategy
The speaker discusses their specific method for setting stop-loss orders at the lows of the day, reiterating the importance of this strategy in their trading approach. They encourage viewers to review previous discussions for more insights.
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00:59:13
Trading Experience
The speaker began their trading journey with an initial capital of approximately $5,000 to $7,000, experiencing three significant losses within the first two years. They acknowledge a tendency to overtrade, especially in unfavorable market conditions, often making small trades despite knowing they shouldn't.
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01:00:01
Swing Trading Approach
The speaker admits that their swing trading sessions are largely unstructured and improvised. They plan to introduce new concepts or scans daily, indicating a dynamic and evolving trading strategy.
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01:00:43
Stock Setup Analysis
The speaker discusses OMTX as a promising setup for traders with small accounts, suggesting that if it breaks above the $1.10 mark on good volume, it could yield significant returns with a risk of only 5 to 8 cents for potential gains of 50 cents to a dollar. They highlight the stock's relevance in the booming COVID-19 vaccine sector.
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01:02:02
Market Strategy in Bear Markets
In a bear market, the speaker focuses on mean reversion trades, both long and short. They note that opportunities are limited in a downtrending market, emphasizing that the best trading opportunities arise when the market is strong and trending upwards.
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01:02:30
Trading Content
When asked about sharing premium content, the speaker humorously declines, stating that access requires a subscription to their non-existent OnlyFans account, indicating a light-hearted approach to the topic.
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01:03:02
UAVS Trading Setup
The speaker expresses optimism about UAVS, describing it as a five-star setup. They suggest that if the stock breaks its daily highs or closes strongly around $3.05 to $3.10, it could present a viable entry point, with the day's lows serving as a stop-loss.
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01:04:08
Tesla Trading Loss
The speaker reports a loss of $58,000 on Tesla, having traded 2,600 shares. They plan to reassess the stock the following day if it retests the previous range, indicating a willingness to adapt their strategy based on market movements.
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01:05:01
Kodak Stock Position
The speaker mentions acquiring an additional 50,000 shares of Kodak, expressing confidence that the stock could potentially rise to $20. They note that Kodak's price action is tightening, suggesting a possible upcoming breakout.
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01:05:12
Share Purchase
The speaker mentions purchasing 32,000 shares, indicating a decision to cancel a buy order as they feel this amount is sufficient. They express a sense of urgency in managing their investments, reflecting on the need to check their videos for more insights on various concepts related to trading.
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01:06:01
Market Strategy
The speaker discusses their tendency to sell early, describing it as a weakness. They emphasize the importance of waiting for the first close below the 10-day moving average before selling a portion of their shares. They reflect on their past experiences where they took profits too early, only to see stocks rise significantly afterward, sometimes by 50-100% within days.
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01:08:40
Overstock Analysis
The speaker analyzes Overstock, noting its impressive rise of 3,200% from March lows. They predict a significant pullback is inevitable but currently observe that the stock is building higher lows on the 60-minute chart, riding the 10 and 20 EMAs as support. They assert that without a drop below these averages or a parabolic rise above 110-120, there is no short opportunity.
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01:09:48
Silver Trade Insights
The speaker expresses a desire to gain exposure to silver trades, mentioning missing out on the HEQ trade. They highlight the tight market conditions and discuss another ETF, CHNOG, which follows a similar pattern of a significant move followed by sideways trading to find support. They note their limited buying power due to being heavily invested in other stocks.
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01:11:02
Swing Trading Philosophy
The speaker elaborates on the principles of swing trading, emphasizing the need to allow stocks room to move without panicking over minor downticks. They contrast swing trading with day trading, where one is constantly near their entry point. They stress the importance of having a specific process and the patience required to let trades develop, even if it means facing temporary losses.
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01:13:12
Loss Reflection
The speaker reflects on a recent loss of $14,000 due to boredom trading, indicating a need for discipline in their trading strategy. They also mention that many silver and gold stocks appear promising, hinting at potential opportunities in these markets.
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01:13:25
Investment Strategy
The speaker suggests considering trading in silver and gold, recommending ETFs like HEQ over individual stocks. They note that the M2 metric was previously low at around 51, now rising to nearly 54, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. The speaker expresses skepticism about certain stocks, advising against them while emphasizing the advantages of triple ETFs.
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01:14:46
Market Analysis
The speaker analyzes a specific stock's price range, noting it has fluctuated between the mid-140s and low to mid-1500s. They predict a significant price movement of 300 to 500 points in either direction once the stock breaks out of this range, potentially reaching as high as 2000 or as low as 1200 in the coming weeks.
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01:15:48
Trading Decisions
The speaker discusses their trading strategy, mentioning a recent purchase of a stock that broke out of a tight range. They plan to raise their stop-loss to the mid-23s and express confidence in the stock's potential to rise significantly, possibly to 30, 40, or even 50. They commit to selling some shares into strength and emphasize the importance of waiting for a close below the 10-day moving average before making further decisions.
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01:17:34
Technical Analysis Tools
The speaker provides a brief tutorial on drawing trend lines in TC2000, explaining the process of left-clicking to draw a line and using the space bar for efficiency. They also mention the importance of monitoring extended hours trading, particularly when a stock is stopped out during after-hours or pre-market sessions.
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01:18:14
Learning Experience
Reflecting on their trading journey, the speaker credits Dan Shapiro for teaching them about 60-minute candles and ranges, highlighting the significant learning they gained from spending four years in his trading room.
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01:18:44
Stream Conclusion
As the stream comes to an end, the speaker acknowledges the overwhelming number of participants and their messages, indicating a need to cut the stream due to fatigue. They express gratitude for the audience's participation and hint at a future session focused on swing trading strategies.
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01:19:00
Stock Scanning
The speaker introduces a stock scanning session, planning to review the biggest gainers over the past six months. They clarify the criteria for their scan, emphasizing the importance of volume, specifically targeting stocks with at least 80 million dollars in trading volume.
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01:19:41
Average Daily Range
The speaker discusses the average daily range and mentions that this information will be shared on their blog or about page. They emphasize the importance of price growth over the past six months, specifically noting that stocks need to be in the top seven percent of performers after applying volume and volatility criteria.
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01:20:34
Stock Scanning
The speaker explains the process of scanning for stocks, indicating that there are not many stocks available for scanning at the moment due to the market being near the open. They anticipate that after the market closes, there will be around 40 to 50 stocks in the scan. Carvana is highlighted as a stock with good setups, showcasing a significant move and a tight range as it approaches the 20-day moving average.
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01:21:50
Identifying Setups
The speaker emphasizes the need to identify setups, particularly when a stock starts to tighten around the 20-day moving average. They advise being ready to buy as soon as the stock breaks out the next day. Another setup is mentioned, rated at three and a half stars, which also shows a pattern of higher lows and a tight range.
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01:22:50
Historical Setups
The discussion shifts to Square, where the speaker reflects on its past setups, particularly from 2017. They describe a successful setup where the stock rides the 50-day moving average, builds a base, and then breaks out with tight candles and higher lows. The speaker stresses the importance of studying these setups extensively, suggesting that dedicating hundreds to thousands of hours to this study can lead to significant financial success.
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01:24:22
Variations of Setups
The speaker notes that while there are variations of the discussed setups, understanding these variations requires extensive study. They mention another decent setup for Square, which bounces off the 20-day moving average, and compare it to a recent setup from SC, highlighting the importance of recognizing similar patterns.
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01:25:19
Buying Strategies
The speaker shares their personal strategy regarding buying stocks, stating that they rarely purchase stocks below the 50-day moving average. They direct listeners to their about page for detailed information on position sizing and clarify that scaling in is not necessary; instead, one can buy everything at once. However, they recommend scaling out by selling a third or half of the position after three to five days, using the 10-day moving average as a trailing stop.
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01:26:11
Stock Selling Strategy
The speaker emphasizes a stock selling strategy where one should sell the remaining shares if the stock closes below the 10-day moving average. They advise against allocating more than 25% of one's account to any single stock, especially in a bull market where numerous stocks exhibit significant movements.
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01:26:48
Etsy Stock Setup
Etsy is highlighted as a five-star setup, with the speaker encouraging listeners to memorize its pattern. They assert that understanding earnings or sector details is unnecessary for recognizing this setup, which is characterized by higher lows and a range surfing the 20-day moving average.
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01:27:30
Fiverr Stock Analysis
The speaker identifies Fiverr as another five-star setup, noting that although they did not trade it due to its thinness, they recognized its potential. They illustrate the importance of selling portions of the stock after significant price movements and using the 10-day moving average as a trailing stop, explaining how to adjust stop-loss orders based on price action.
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01:28:56
mRNA Stock Insights
The speaker shares their experience with mRNA, describing it as a five-star setup that they bought but regrettably sold due to a lack of trust in the stock's performance. They reflect on the missed opportunity as the stock continued to rise after their sale, emphasizing the importance of adhering to personal sell rules.
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01:29:39
Stock Movement Patterns
The discussion continues with the speaker analyzing various stocks, noting the significance of tight ranges and breakout candles on higher volume. They mention the importance of recognizing setups that build higher lows and the potential for stocks to flag after significant moves, indicating a possible continuation pattern.
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01:30:31
BMTX Stock Evaluation
BMTX is evaluated as appearing weak after undercutting the 20-day moving average. However, the speaker notes that if it closes strongly within its range, it could still present a viable setup for trading.
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01:31:06
W Stock Setup
The speaker discusses stock W, describing it as a five-star setup that shows support during the 20-day moving average and builds higher lows. They also mention a previous purchase of this stock, reflecting on the mixed feedback received from others regarding their trading decisions.
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01:31:39
Livongo Trading
The speaker reflects on their trading experiences with Livongo, mentioning that they initially bought shares when the stock guided higher. They express a desire to teach this trading setup in the future but focus on a recent breakout setup that, while not obvious, did work. Unfortunately, they were stopped out due to a lack of follow-through, but the stock later bounced off the 20-day moving average.
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01:32:36
Successful Trade Setup
The speaker describes a five-star setup they traded, highlighting how the stock built higher lows and maintained a tight range before breaking higher. They bought back into the stock after a significant move and noted another five-star setup that closed weakly but was still a good entry point. They sold their shares in the low hundreds, believing the stock was extended, only to see it rise to $150.
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01:33:21
VXRT Trading Strategy
The speaker discusses VXRT, emphasizing the importance of identifying setups the day before. They mention a gap up on news and the necessity to buy at the opening range highs. The speaker had a successful trade with VXRT, noting the high volume at the start and the strategy of selling into strength over the next few days. They also mention a potential setup for VXRT but dismiss it as not looking great.
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01:34:24
SRNE Trading Experience
The speaker shares their experience with SRNE, admitting to a mistake in selling at $6, which they regret as the stock performed well afterward. They re-bought shares on August 29, acquiring between 150,000 to 200,000 shares, and currently hold 40,000 shares.
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01:35:04
Tesla and Twilio Setups
The speaker briefly mentions Tesla, indicating it is setting up with higher lows, and notes that they discussed it previously. They then shift to Twilio, describing its movement after a big move, where it consolidated in a tight range, found support on the rising 20-day moving average, and eventually broke out on higher volume.
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01:36:07
Overstock Trading Setup
The speaker reflects on Overstock, indicating it had a good setup, rating it as a three and a half to four-star setup. They also mention another five-star setup, emphasizing the importance of identifying strong setups.
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01:36:30
Stock Scanning Strategies
The speaker discusses their various scanning strategies for stocks, mentioning they have different scans for different time frames, including six-month gainers, one-month, three-month, and one-year scans. They stress the importance of focusing on the strongest stocks within a one-month timeframe, particularly for shorter-term trading.
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01:37:06
Trading Formula
The speaker outlines a trading formula for analyzing stock performance over different time frames. For one month, the formula involves calculating the price gain from the lowest point over the past 22 trading days. The speaker suggests using an Average Daily Range (ADR) of 3.5 to 6 percent and a dollar volume of at least 5 million, depending on account size. For three months, the calculation is based on the lowest price point over 67 trading days, and for six months, it is based on the lowest price over 126 days. The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a rank of 90 or above and advises tightening criteria if more than 50 results are returned from scans.
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01:39:39
Trading Strategy
The speaker shares personal trading strategies, particularly regarding selling stocks. He mentions holding 12,000 shares of a stock with a 49 average price, which is currently up 4 percent. He suggests selling a portion of shares every three to five percent increase, recommending to sell a third on day three and another third on day five, while trailing the remaining shares with a 10-day moving average. The speaker encourages flexibility in this approach, allowing traders to adjust based on their preferences.
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01:41:45
Stock Selection
In discussing stock selection, the speaker critiques slower-moving stocks like PayPal, stating that to achieve significant profits, traders should focus on fast-moving stocks. He implies that the dynamics of trading require engagement with stocks that exhibit rapid price movements rather than those that are stagnant.
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01:43:33
Community Engagement
The speaker acknowledges the support from his community, thanking individuals for linking to his about page, which consolidates frequently asked questions. He expresses appreciation for the assistance in managing repetitive inquiries across various platforms, including Twitch, Twitter, and YouTube. He admits to procrastination in creating the about page but recognizes its importance for clarity.
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01:45:06
Market Performance
When asked about his performance using momentum stocks prior to a significant bull run, the speaker reflects positively, stating that breakout and momentum strategies tend to perform best in a market characterized by momentum. This insight highlights the correlation between market conditions and the effectiveness of specific trading strategies.
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01:45:23
Market Patience
The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience in trading, noting that it is acceptable to remain in cash for extended periods, sometimes weeks or months, especially when market conditions are unfavorable. They assert that during favorable periods, traders can significantly increase their accounts, potentially doubling or tripling their investments. The speaker acknowledges that while it is easier said than done, waiting for the right market conditions is crucial.
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01:45:58
NASDAQ Trading Strategy
The speaker highlights the NASDAQ as the primary index to monitor, stating that it encompasses 90% of stock trades. They outline a general trading strategy where the 10-day moving average should be sloping higher than the 20-day moving average, indicating a favorable swing trading environment. They mention that during a recent four-month bull run, they more than doubled their accounts, despite the market experiencing many breakdowns and few successful breakouts.
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01:47:02
Market Trends and Challenges
The speaker discusses various market conditions, noting a challenging period where both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages were sloping lower, which is not conducive to swing trading. They describe a shock environment with no clear trend, where moving averages were mostly sideways or declining. However, they also recall an exceptionally good trading environment in the first five months of 2019, emphasizing that traders often face three to six months of challenging conditions each year, followed by periods of significant profit potential.
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01:48:08
Trading Mindset
The speaker reflects on the mindset required for successful trading, asserting that making millions is not about complex strategies but rather about patience and discipline. They suggest that anyone with basic intelligence can succeed in trading, but many struggle with the patience to wait and do nothing during less favorable market conditions. The speaker admits to sharing this impatience, highlighting the common desire among traders to be actively engaged.
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01:49:12
Technical Analysis Tools
The speaker mentions using the Platinum version of TC2000 for trading analysis and discusses the importance of identifying stock setups. They advise traders to study stocks that have previously doubled or tripled, focusing on their behavior around key moving averages. The speaker emphasizes the significance of the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, describing them as essential indicators that leading stocks tend to respect, likening their effectiveness to 'magic' or 'cheating' in trading.
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01:51:01
Trading Instruments
In response to a question about trading preferences, the speaker confirms that they primarily trade U.S. stocks and also engage in trading U.S. ETFs. This indicates a focus on established markets and instruments that are likely to yield favorable trading conditions.
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01:51:39
Broker Comparison
The speaker discusses the differences between Trade Zero and Interactive Brokers, suggesting that Trade Zero may be better for short selling, while Interactive Brokers is also a strong option. They emphasize the importance of trying both platforms to determine which one suits individual trading needs.
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01:51:59
Trading Database
The speaker mentions their extensive Evernote database, which contains tens of thousands of charts and setups based on various trading strategies. They have invested thousands of hours into building this resource and plan to share it in the coming week.
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01:52:18
Watchlist Creation
The speaker explains how they create a daily watchlist by tracking notable breakouts and breakdowns. They reference their oldest watchlist from July 6, indicating a systematic approach to reviewing past market movements and setups.
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01:53:40
Moving Averages Usage
The speaker describes their use of simple moving averages on daily charts and exponential moving averages on 60-minute charts, stating that these methods work well for momentum stocks. They acknowledge that different traders may find varying success with different types of moving averages, emphasizing the need for a rationale behind their choices.
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01:54:26
Market Events Analysis
On July 6, the speaker recalls several stocks that experienced notable movements, including a loss incurred from a breakout on a stock that had earnings after hours. They mention specific stocks like Seabath, UMRS, and Tiger, highlighting the volatility and unpredictability of the market on that day.
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01:55:58
Setup Evaluation
The speaker evaluates various stock setups, particularly focusing on a biotech stock that had significant movement on high volume. They discuss the importance of analyzing setups, including the necessity of understanding the overall market picture and learning from numerous examples to refine trading strategies.
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01:56:52
Recent Stock Performance
The speaker mentions a stock named Koopa, describing it as having a five-star setup characterized by higher lows. They express enthusiasm about its performance, indicating a positive outlook based on the stock's recent movements.
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01:57:01
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses the recent market movements, noting a choppy range that eventually tightened and broke out. They mention stalking a particular stock that has shown a significant tightening range, indicating a potential upward movement. The stock is highlighted as an 'earnings winner' due to its strong earnings report from the previous week and positive guidance, suggesting it has the momentum needed for a substantial price increase.
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01:58:00
Trading Strategy
The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on momentum when trading stocks, particularly those with strong earnings. They suggest that traders should concentrate on setups rather than getting distracted by other factors. The speaker mentions their recent purchase of a stock that broke the $17 mark, which quickly rose to $15-$16 before pulling back and establishing higher lows, indicating a potentially positive trend.
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01:59:00
Scans and Watchlists
The speaker shares their approach to intraday scans, advising that traders should utilize one-month, three-month, and six-month momentum scans to identify setups. They recommend running these scans after market close to compile a watchlist of promising stocks, which is essential for successful trading. The speaker believes that understanding current market conditions is crucial, noting that the past four to five months have provided an excellent swing trading environment, comparable to the late 1990s and the second and third quarters of 2009.
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02:00:00
Stock Performance
The speaker reflects on their experience with a stock, APT, from which they were recently stopped out. They detail their trading strategy, including selling half of their position when it was clear the stock would close below the 20-day moving average. The speaker expresses disappointment in the stock's performance, describing it as a 'broken chart' and decides to remove it from their positions list.
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02:01:00
Five-Star Setup
The speaker highlights a stock, LRM, as a 'five-star setup' that attentive followers should have recognized. They discuss their entry point around the $48-$49 range, noting that they had to chase the stock a bit to secure their position. The speaker expresses confidence in the stock's potential to reach $60-$70, indicating a strong belief in its upward trajectory.
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02:02:00
Future Potential
The speaker expresses optimism about another stock, LSC, predicting that it will gain traction once it catches the attention of retail traders, particularly on platforms like Robinhood. They recount their own buying experience, indicating that they entered the stock at a slightly higher price than ideal but remain confident in its future performance due to its previous setups.
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02:02:33
Trading Experience
The speaker reflects on their nine years of trading experience, suggesting that seasoned traders know when to break rules, while those with less than five years of experience should adhere strictly to them. They emphasize the importance of understanding market dynamics before making risky decisions.
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02:03:35
Market Setup Analysis
The speaker discusses a promising market setup for the following day, specifically mentioning a stock labeled 'ino' as a four-star setup. They compare its current performance to previous patterns, indicating a strategic approach to trading based on historical data.
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02:04:48
Stock Recommendations
The speaker identifies 'ibio' and 'hdbx' as stocks with strong potential for the next trading day, with 'hdbx' appearing slightly more favorable. They also analyze 'mRNA', noting its current position relative to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting it could be a viable setup if it closes strongly.
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02:05:19
Twitter Trading Strategy
The speaker expresses optimism about trading Twitter, highlighting a potential risk of 75 to 80 cents with the possibility of significant gains, potentially reaching 45 to 50 dollars. They stress the importance of aiming for high returns on initial risks in swing trading, citing that successful trades can yield returns 20 to 50 times the initial investment.
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02:06:34
Win Rate Insights
The speaker shares insights on win rates in trading, revealing that their win rate last year was around 20 to 25%, while this year it has improved to approximately 30%. They argue that traders can still achieve substantial profits with a win rate below 50%, challenging the notion that high win rates are necessary for success.
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02:07:30
Best Trading Month
The speaker recalls June as their best trading month, during which they made 5 million dollars, attributing this success to favorable market conditions, particularly the NASDAQ's upward trend during that period.
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02:08:02
Growth Stock Characteristics
The speaker discusses the characteristics of growth stocks, using 'livongo' as an example. They emphasize the importance of triple-digit earnings and revenue growth, explaining that such metrics are crucial for identifying stocks with significant potential for price appreciation.
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02:09:06
Market Analysis Tools
The speaker highlights the importance of tracking financial metrics, such as earnings per share (EPS) and revenue growth, to gain conviction in trading decisions. They advocate for a data-driven approach to trading, suggesting that understanding the underlying numbers can provide a competitive edge.
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02:09:14
Market Analysis
The speaker expresses skepticism about a company's earnings and revenue growth, suggesting it has poor performance. However, they believe it could be a strong short opportunity, particularly noting its alignment with the 20 EMA. They highlight the potential for the company to monetize its powerful social media platform, predicting a market cap exceeding $100 billion if successful.
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02:10:00
Trading Strategy
The speaker discusses the importance of not over-concentrating investments in a single stock, advising against allocating more than 25% of one's account to any one position. They illustrate the risks of heavy investment using hypothetical scenarios involving Tesla and a micro-cap biotech stock, emphasizing the potential for significant losses due to unforeseen events.
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02:12:02
Short Setup Opportunities
The speaker identifies Etsy as a promising short setup, particularly if it gaps up on earnings, as it has been on an upward trend for several days. They express hope for an ideal scenario where it gaps up, allowing for a profitable short position. They also reflect on a recent trade involving Livongo, where they shorted 10,000 shares at low 145s, noting that they could have increased their position size for better results.
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02:13:22
Market Momentum
The speaker remarks on the current market conditions, describing it as a runaway bull market with strong momentum. They mention the abundance of trading setups available and reiterate that one does not need to rely on a single setup to achieve significant profits, contrasting it with the breakout method they have been teaching.
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02:14:01
Swing Trading School
The speaker prepares to start a swing trading school session, indicating they will conduct a two-year scan to identify potential stock setups. They emphasize the need for minimal distractions during the session and clarify that this scan focuses on identifying the biggest winners over the past two years, although they note that participants do not necessarily need this scan.
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02:14:43
Stock Scanning
The speaker discusses the importance of scanning stocks over one month, three months, and six months to identify those that have significantly increased in value over the past two years. They emphasize the need for high volume criteria in the current market, which has just opened, indicating a limited number of stocks available for analysis.
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02:15:17
Overstock Analysis
Reflecting on Overstock's performance in 2017, the speaker highlights it as one of their biggest winners that year. They stress the importance of having a clean setup with minimal indicators and suggest building a personal database of successful setups by taking screenshots and organizing them in a folder or app like Evernote.
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02:16:00
Trading Setups
The speaker describes various trading setups, including a notable one where Overstock found support on a rising 20-day moving average and broke out at $25 on significant volume. They also mention setups involving the first bounce of the 50-day moving average and the importance of high volume in confirming these setups.
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02:17:16
Short Selling Advice
The speaker advises against short selling for those who have not yet made their first million, suggesting that only experienced traders should consider shorting. They mention their own experience with Overstock, where they traded 25,000 shares, and express uncertainty about discussing shorting strategies with less experienced traders.
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02:18:07
CWH Setup
The speaker analyzes CWH, noting that while it was not a major earnings or momentum leader in the past, it has recently shown momentum since the COVID-19 crisis. They describe a decent setup characterized by clean price action, where the stock consistently surfed the 10-day and 20-day moving averages before breaking a range.
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02:19:01
Square and SCGDG
The speaker briefly mentions Square, indicating they had discussed it previously and would not elaborate further. They then shift focus to SCGDG, recalling their past trades in 2017, where the stock was in a strong uptrend, surfed the 20-day moving average, and found support on the 50-day moving average, leading to a very good trading setup.
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02:20:03
Roku Trading Experience
The speaker reminisces about trading Roku back in 2019, recalling that they executed trades on stream. This personal anecdote highlights their engagement with the stock and the significance of their trading experiences.
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02:20:14
Trading Setups
The speaker discusses a strong trading setup characterized by a significant uptrend and clean bounces off the 50-day moving average, indicating the formation of higher lows before breaking a defined range. They describe this as a 'five-star setup' and express satisfaction with their trading decisions, although they note a less obvious setup that did not adhere to their sell rules.
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02:21:02
Carvana Setup
The speaker reflects on a trading setup involving Carvana, emphasizing the importance of riding the 10 and 20-day moving averages. They mention that while this setup is not as obvious as others, it still presents a good opportunity, particularly when it breaks a range on high volume. They compare it to more evident setups like Tesla, which they anticipate will yield significant returns once it breaks out.
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02:22:00
AMD Trading History
The speaker reminisces about their past trading experiences with AMD, acknowledging their previous struggles as a swing trader in 2016. They highlight a specific five-star setup that, despite its potential, would have resulted in a stop-out due to market fluctuations. They stress the importance of studying past setups and taking screenshots for future reference, noting that AMD has consistently provided strong trading opportunities over the years.
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02:23:00
Higher Lows Concept
The speaker emphasizes the critical concept of building higher lows in trading setups, illustrating this with examples of AMD's price action. They explain that many successful setups often exhibit this pattern before breaking out, reinforcing the idea that traders should look for these indicators. However, they caution that not every good setup guarantees success, as some may lack follow-through.
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02:24:00
Risk Management
The speaker discusses the importance of risk management in trading, suggesting that a trader can achieve significant returns even with a low win rate, such as 30%. They advocate for accepting losses as part of the trading process, stating that the best traders are those who manage their losses effectively. They share a personal anecdote about a trade where they experienced a significant loss after a promising setup, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the market.
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02:25:00
Personal Trading Experience
The speaker recounts a specific trade where they invested a substantial portion of their account—50%—in a setup that initially appeared promising. However, after the trade took out the opening range lows, they were stopped out, only to see the stock reverse and reach new highs later. This experience underscores the volatility of trading and the challenges of maintaining a strong position amidst market fluctuations.
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02:25:19
Trade Reflection
The speaker expresses regret about missing a significant trading opportunity, noting that the stock in question increased by 95% over the following months. They emphasize the importance of following specific trading strategies, such as selling a third to half of a position after three to five days and moving the stop to break even.
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02:26:37
Moving Averages Strategy
The speaker highlights the effectiveness of the 10-day moving average for trading momentum stocks, describing it as an incredibly reliable tool. They illustrate this by discussing a recent trade they executed, where they adhered to their exit rules and sold when the stock closed below the 10-day moving average.
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02:27:40
Tesla Trade Anticipation
Excitement builds as the speaker discusses their anticipation for a potential trade in Tesla, likening its current setup to a previous successful trade. They speculate that if Tesla breaks out, it could reach a price of $2000, indicating they hold a significant position in the stock.
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02:28:10
Identifying Good Setups
The speaker evaluates various stock setups, emphasizing the importance of stocks that are trending upwards with moving averages at a steep angle. They discuss a specific setup that initially appeared promising but ultimately did not follow through, leading to a stop-out.
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02:29:20
Ideal Stock Characteristics
The speaker elaborates on the characteristics of ideal stocks for trading, advocating for those with 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages trending at a 45-degree angle or steeper. They express a desire for a permanent 45-degree line on their charts to better visualize these trends.
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02:30:28
Shopify Trading Insights
The speaker reflects on their experiences with Shopify, noting that while it had decent setups in the past, the current trading environment has become tricky. They acknowledge the stock's potential but indicate that recent setups have not been as favorable.
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02:30:42
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses the importance of recognizing 45-degree angles in stock movements, emphasizing that setups should ideally maintain this angle. They note that a particular stock, which had a multi-day pullback, quickly rebounded to all-time highs, indicating a strong market recovery. The speaker mentions holding 4,800 shares of this stock, having initially purchased around 9,000 shares, highlighting the significance of this setup.
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02:32:00
Stock Setups
The speaker analyzes another stock that is moving at a faster rate than the ideal 45-degree angle, which is considered a positive sign. They reflect on a previous setup that occurred shortly after the March lows, where the stock quickly reclaimed its 50-day moving average, demonstrating resilience despite a 30% drop during the pandemic. This setup is deemed acceptable within the broader market context.
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02:33:06
Trading Strategies
The speaker shares insights on trading specific stocks like Kodak and Codec, noting that while Codec is showing signs of bouncing off the 10-day moving average and building higher lows, it does not fit the ideal setup they aim to teach. They emphasize the importance of identifying variations in setups and the necessity of recognizing good trading opportunities, even if they are subtle.
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02:34:05
Entry Points
The speaker elaborates on the concept of buying at the opening range highs after a stock triggers a breakout. They stress the importance of timing and the need to buy quickly once the stock starts moving, while also acknowledging that sometimes it is acceptable to let stocks go if they do not meet the desired criteria. They provide a practical example of determining stop-loss levels based on the stock's price and average true range.
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02:35:20
Stock Behavior
The speaker describes a stock that has historically been choppy and difficult to trade, yet identifies a recent good setup that emerged. They note that this stock has been followed for years, but it rarely presents clean trading opportunities, making the current setup noteworthy.
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02:35:50
Trading Setup Analysis
The speaker reflects on a trading setup that appeared promising, noting the slower stock movement visible on the daily candles. They express frustration with the limitations of the TC2000 platform, which restricts historical data access to only five years, preventing analysis of setups from 2013 or earlier. Despite this, they identify a gap up in the stock as acceptable if it aligns with the opening range highs, emphasizing the importance of using the day's lows as a stop-loss point, ideally not exceeding the average true range.
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02:37:27
Market Scanning and Setup Identification
The speaker discusses the necessity of daily work in identifying trading setups, encouraging listeners to scan for big winners and recognize recurring patterns. They mention a specific stock, MCHP, which they initially misjudged but later recognized as a good setup, highlighting the importance of bouncing off the 50-day moving average and establishing higher lows as indicators of a strong setup.
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02:39:56
Stop Management Strategy
In discussing stop management, the speaker advises moving the stop to break even after the first three to five days of a trade. They emphasize the importance of this strategy in maintaining risk management while allowing for potential gains.
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02:40:21
Momentum Leader Criteria
When evaluating KSU, the speaker concludes it does not qualify as a momentum leader due to its lack of a clean upward trajectory, as indicated by its 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages. They stress that a stock must exhibit a clear 45-degree angle to be considered a strong candidate for trading.
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02:41:18
Open Q&A Session
The speaker invites participants to ask questions, offering to provide life advice and support, indicating a willingness to engage with the audience beyond trading topics. They express their role as a mentor and friend, encouraging open communication.
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02:42:28
Trading Style and Risk Management
The speaker reveals that 99% of their trades are swing trades, typically employing stop-loss strategies that are about half of the average true range. They share their personal experience of feeling like they are chasing trades when approaching the full average true range, indicating a cautious approach to risk management.
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02:43:06
Trading Platforms
The speaker mentions their experience with the Think or Swim trading platform, suggesting familiarity with various trading tools and platforms that assist in their trading strategies.
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02:43:09
Account Closure
The speaker recounts an experience from around 2011 to 2013 when their account was closed due to lack of funding. They mention that they had to 'think or swim' before the account was pulled out by a 'merry trade.' Despite the closure, they appreciated the good sharding of the pro-fit shards.
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02:43:35
Twitter Trading
The speaker expresses a negative view on trading Twitter, stating it has an ADR of only 3.6 and advises against trading it, despite acknowledging it as a four-star setup.
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02:44:09
Trading Setup Evaluation
When asked about the trading setup for 'clsk,' the speaker dismisses it as a good setup. They recommend that traders with accounts under a couple of million should use at least 4% for their trades, noting they increased their scans from 3.5% to 4% recently.
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02:44:47
Crocs Trading Analysis
The speaker evaluates Crocs, noting it is in a nice uptrend but criticizes it for not being tight, describing it as 'kind of choppy' and not a clean setup.
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02:45:08
Personal Interaction
In a light-hearted exchange, the speaker humorously declines a request for 'cult advice' and quips about the impossibility of being a father figure at this stage.
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02:46:04
Trading and Emotions
The speaker discusses the relationship between trading performance and personal mood, stating that their trading does not affect their feelings outside the market, but rather the opposite is true.
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02:46:25
Daily Preparation
The speaker shares insights on how they prepare for the trading day, mentioning they plan to elaborate on this in their about page. They describe a typical morning routine that includes waking up around 9 AM and going to the gym by 10 AM.
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02:48:02
Stock Trading Experience
The speaker reflects on their experience with the stock Fastly, stating they bought it at one point but got stopped out and have not been involved with it since. They mention that an easy stock trade entry should not exceed one times the average true range.
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02:49:29
Swing Trading Strategy
When discussing swing trading, the speaker emphasizes the importance of reviewing their swing trading school sessions for guidance on taking profits or selling completely. They mention that the seller rules are straightforward and encourage listeners to read their about page for more details.
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02:50:02
Current Positions
The speaker indicates that they can show their current positions, although not in the current shot. They mention that their current positions are represented in boxes on the swing trading school chart.
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02:50:24
Twitter as Trading Tool
The speaker utilizes Twitter as a trading tool, curating a list of reliable sources for news and trading ideas. They emphasize the platform's effectiveness in providing sector-specific news and insights into market trends.
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02:51:20
Investment Status
The speaker discusses their Swedish investment business, noting that progress is slow due to vacation time and a lack of effort. They mention a specific stock, ibio, indicating it needs to close strong for a potential setup, but currently appears weak.
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02:51:38
TC2000 Subscription
When asked about the cost of TC2000, the speaker admits uncertainty about their subscription fee but expresses satisfaction, stating they would be willing to pay ten times the current amount for its value.
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02:52:07
Current Positions Disclosure
The speaker confirms that they share their current trading positions during the stream, although they prefer not to disclose trades in thinly traded stocks to avoid influencing others. They encourage viewers to learn independently rather than follow them blindly.
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02:52:49
Trading Philosophy
The speaker critiques scalping and day trading, suggesting that swing trading is a more suitable approach for beginners. They recount their own experience starting as a day trader before discovering successful swing trading through a mentor named Pradeep, who runs Stock B dot base.
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02:54:22
ADR Formula Explanation
The speaker explains the ADR (Average Daily Range) formula used for stock scanning. They provide a step-by-step guide on creating scans for the biggest one-month gainers, emphasizing the importance of volume and suggesting a minimum volume threshold of 10 to 20 million for smaller accounts.
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02:56:10
Scanning Parameters
The speaker advises on setting parameters for stock scans, recommending a rank of 90 or higher for candidates. They caution against exceeding 50 candidates in any scan to maintain focus and manageability.
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02:56:16
Candidate Ranking
The speaker discusses the importance of adjusting the rank or ADR percentage when dealing with a large number of candidates, suggesting that if one has over 50-60 candidates, it may be necessary to increase the rank or ADR percentage. For instance, with an ADR of 5% yielding 75 results, increasing it to 6% resulting in 55 results is acceptable, as maintaining around 50-60 results is deemed sufficient.
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02:57:00
Trading Preferences
The speaker explains their avoidance of trading major stocks like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook due to their slow performance, citing specific ADR values: Apple at 2.7, Amazon at 3, Google at 2.4, and Facebook at 2.8. The speaker prefers faster-moving stocks, indicating a preference for more dynamic trading opportunities.
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02:58:10
Market Wizards Book
Excitement builds as the speaker anticipates the release of a new 'Market Wizards' book, scheduled for November 3. They express eagerness to learn from a trader who turned a $2,500 account into $50 million, highlighting the impressive average return of 337% over 13 years. The speaker speculates on the trader's methods, pondering whether they involve day trading strategies or smaller account management.
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03:00:00
Skepticism Towards Claims
The speaker expresses skepticism regarding the credibility of Peter L. Brandt, who claims to have achieved a 30% annual return over 30 years. They question why Brandt, if true, is not a multi-billionaire and criticize his subscription service priced at a few hundred dollars per month. The speaker suggests that something seems amiss with Brandt's claims, indicating a lack of trust in his reported success.
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03:01:44
Trading Success Stories
The discussion shifts to a promising junior tennis player in the UK who abandoned their sports career for trading, achieving a nine-year track record with an average return of 300%. The speaker reflects on how such strategies can transform a small investment into tens of millions, drawing parallels to their own trading experiences.
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03:02:13
Investment Returns
The speaker discusses impressive investment returns over the past seven years, noting a total return of just under 300 percent. Specifically, since 2013, the average annual return was approximately 268 percent, emphasizing that such high returns can transform a few thousand dollars into tens of millions over several years.
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03:02:56
Excitement for Upcoming Book
The speaker expresses immense excitement for an upcoming book, claiming it to be the most thrilling book they have ever anticipated, highlighting a personal connection to the content.
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03:03:22
Trading Losses
The speaker mentions a significant trading loss of $16,000 on GSX, indicating that despite this setback, they believe the stock will eventually present a strong shorting opportunity as it continues to rise.
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03:04:46
Tax Information
In response to a question about taxes, the speaker directs viewers to their 'about page' for detailed information, mentioning a 30% tax rate in Sweden and clarifying that taxes are paid based on residency rather than the location of trading.
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03:05:19
Trading Strategies
The speaker discusses the potential timeline for turning $100,000 into a million dollars, suggesting that in a favorable market, with a 200% annual return and after accounting for taxes, it could realistically take two to three years if one possesses the necessary skills and methods.
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03:06:14
Traders and Cars
The speaker comments on the stereotype of traders being interested in cars, distinguishing between two types: those who rent luxury cars for promotional purposes and those who genuinely earn money from trading and purchase their dream cars. The speaker identifies with the latter group, expressing pride in having bought their dream car.
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03:07:42
Market Research Book
The speaker expresses surprise and excitement upon learning that a person named Pradeep is featured in a market research book, indicating a connection to the trading community and the significance of such recognition.
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03:08:06
Trading Setups
The speaker elaborates on the characteristics of effective trading setups, emphasizing the importance of a 45-degree angle in price movement and the necessity for stocks to be in a strong upward trend, referencing specific patterns that indicate potential breakouts.
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03:09:00
U.S. Tax Obligations
The speaker clarifies that U.S. taxes do not apply to trading conducted by non-residents, reiterating that taxes are determined by the trader's country of residence, which in this case is Sweden.
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03:11:13
Car Preferences
In a light-hearted moment, the speaker shares their opinion on the Porsche 911, stating that while they find it visually appealing, they would prefer to own a Porsche Icon instead, reflecting personal taste in luxury vehicles.
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03:11:20
Porsche Purchase
The speaker expresses interest in buying a Porsche, indicating a desire for a luxury vehicle.
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03:11:27
Lesson Charges
In response to a question about lesson fees, the speaker states that they will not be charging anything for their lessons, suggesting a focus on sharing knowledge rather than profit.
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03:11:43
Learning from Pradeep
The speaker mentions that their interest in sharing knowledge stems from what they learned from Pradeep, emphasizing that the same methods they are teaching were derived from Pradeep's teachings.
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03:12:33
Moderator Communication
The speaker requests moderators to contact them via Messenger to discuss creating a group, indicating a desire for better organization among the moderators.
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03:13:17
Trading Strategy
The speaker explains their trading strategy, noting that they sell on significant price increases, although not on every small uptick, highlighting a mental approach to trading.
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03:14:04
Car Dealership Timing
The speaker realizes they have lost track of time during the stream and needs to visit a car dealership before it closes in 19 minutes, indicating a sense of urgency.
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03:14:28
Market Predictions
The speaker predicts that Chia 6 will be a significant short opportunity starting the next day, showcasing their market analysis skills.
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03:15:00
Stock Setup Analysis
The speaker analyzes a stock setup, particularly Celsius, describing it as a 'five-star setup' and emphasizing the importance of recognizing such patterns for trading success.
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03:15:27
Stock Performance Review
The speaker reflects on their position in Kodak, indicating uncertainty about being stopped out, and notes a general pullback in growth stocks, which they view positively as they have added shorts.
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03:16:29
Broker Recommendations
The speaker recommends using Interactive Brokers and Center Point as preferred brokers, suggesting their reliability for trading.
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03:17:04
Stream Conclusion
The speaker announces the end of the stream, thanking moderators for their assistance and indicating a transition to a new topic.
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03:17:21
Swing Trading School
The speaker introduces a swing trading school concept, recommending three scans: a one-month gainer scan, a three-month gainer scan, and a six-month gainer scan, to help traders identify profitable stocks.
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03:19:03
Stock Gainers Analysis
The speaker discusses the results of a six-month gainer scan, noting that they have identified 47 stocks, including mRNA, which is experiencing a breakdown, indicating a focus on COVID-19 related stocks.
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03:19:41
Market Setups
The discussion begins with an analysis of various market setups, starting with ACMR, which has been a significant player over the past six months. The speaker reflects on the difficulty of identifying effective setups, noting that while some setups appeared promising, they ultimately lacked strong follow-through. A specific setup is highlighted where a stock made a significant move, pulled back, and began building higher lows, but the breakout did not yield substantial gains.
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03:20:51
Identifying Good Setups
The speaker emphasizes the challenge of finding good setups in the current market, describing many stocks as 'choppy' with no clear patterns. A standout setup is described as a 'five and a half star' on a five-star scale, characterized by a significant move followed by a sideways trend, a loss of the 20-day moving average, and the formation of higher lows before a breakout on high volume. This setup is recommended for memorization due to its effectiveness.
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03:22:03
Potential Setups
The speaker discusses ARCD, noting that while it has been a long position, it presents challenges in identifying setups. A potential setup is identified where the stock makes a significant move, pulls back, and builds higher lows before breaking out on high volume. However, the speaker cautions that it may not lead to substantial profits. The analysis continues with BLNK, which shows potential for a setup if it can maintain a sideways trend for a few days.
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03:23:41
Swing Trading Techniques
The speaker transitions to discussing swing trading techniques, highlighting the importance of using only three moving averages as indicators. A potential setup is illustrated where a stock makes a significant move, pulls back, and then bounces off the 50-day moving average, building a tight range before a breakout. This method is emphasized as a reliable strategy for identifying clean bounces and potential trading opportunities.
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03:24:15
Specific Stock Analysis
The analysis continues with specific stocks like CDE and CELLH. The speaker notes that CDE lacks good setups, while CELLH presents a couple of promising setups. One notable setup involves a significant move, followed by a surf on the 20-day moving average and the formation of higher lows, culminating in a breakout. The speaker rates this as a five-star setup, suggesting that traders should consider earnings reports when planning their trades.
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03:24:58
Earnings Strategy
The speaker advises against buying stocks within three days of earnings reports, emphasizing that while a stock may present a strong setup, such as a four and a half star rating with a clean bounce off the 20-day moving average and higher lows, it is risky to purchase just before earnings. They illustrate this with a specific example, noting that if the stock hadn't reported earnings that day, it would have been a good buy.
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03:25:47
Stock Setup Analysis
The speaker discusses a stock, CLS, describing it as a 'maybe setup' that shows potential after a significant move followed by a pullback and sideways action. They note the importance of a tight range day for a more favorable setup, indicating that while it is decent, it could have been better with a tighter range.
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03:26:15
Perfect Trading Setups
The speaker highlights a stock, Codex, as having several perfect setups, including a six-star setup. They describe the stock's movement, noting how it tightens its range and builds higher lows while surfing the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The day before a breakout, it exhibits a narrow range, leading to a high-volume breakout, which the speaker considers an ideal trading scenario.
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03:27:03
Trading Experience
The speaker reflects on their trading experience with a specific stock, mentioning a day when they sold too early despite having a good setup. They recount how they reported on this stock during a stream and are now waiting for it to close below the 10-day moving average to sell the remaining shares, having already sold most into strength after a significant move of 56.50 in a few weeks.
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03:28:25
Market Trends
The speaker notes the ongoing upward trend in cruise lines and airlines, specifically mentioning Carvana, which had multiple strong setups. They describe a significant move where the stock served the 20-day moving average, tightened its range, and eventually broke out, resulting in a remarkable 300% increase.
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03:29:01
Stock Selection Criteria
The speaker emphasizes the importance of trading high Average Daily Range (ADR) stocks, contrasting them with low ADR stocks. They assert that low ADR stocks should be avoided, while high ADR stocks are likened to 'gold' in terms of trading potential. They reiterate that successful setups often involve significant moves followed by pullbacks or consolidations, with stocks finding support along moving averages before breaking out.
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03:30:06
Stock Movement Patterns
The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding stock movement patterns over the past century, suggesting that historical charts from the 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, and 1990s reveal consistent behaviors in stock movements. Memorizing these patterns is crucial for successful trading.
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03:30:30
CWH Stock Setup
The speaker discusses the CWH stock, noting that while it had an acceptable setup, a more pronounced sideways movement would have been preferable. The stock showed potential by respecting the 20-day moving average and beginning to build a range, although the setup was not particularly clean.
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03:30:57
Successful Trading Setup
A standout example from April is highlighted, where a stock made a significant move, increasing over 200% before pulling back to find support on the rising 20-day moving average. This setup, characterized by a tight range and a high-volume breakout, is described as a 'five-star setup' where substantial profits can be made.
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03:31:27
Trailing Stop Strategy
The speaker advocates for a strategy involving selling one-third to half of a position after three to five days, then moving the stop to break even. The discussion includes nuances about holding onto a stock even if it closes below the 10-day moving average, with the speaker promising to provide a better example later.
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03:32:24
Identifying Good Setups
The speaker reviews various stocks, including XPI and Fiverr, noting that they had excellent setups. The discussion emphasizes the importance of recognizing five-star setups and decent setups, which can lead to profitable trades.
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03:33:00
IBIO Stock Analysis
The speaker analyzes IBIO, describing a good setup where the stock broke out late in the day after gapping up. The highest price of the day was noted at $2.58, and the speaker reflects on the stock's sideways movement throughout the day, indicating a solid trading opportunity.
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03:34:20
IDEX Stock Setup
IDEX is mentioned as having a potential setup that did not follow through. The speaker recalls trading it on a day when it broke out but notes that it was a variation of a setup that ultimately lacked momentum.
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03:35:02
Key Trading Criteria
The speaker outlines essential criteria for identifying successful trades: finding stocks that make significant moves, pull back, or move sideways while finding support on the 10, 20, or 50-day moving averages. The importance of building higher lows and breaking out of tight ranges is reiterated as a recurring theme in successful trading strategies.
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03:35:31
Livongo Trading Experience
The speaker shares personal trading experiences with Livongo, describing it as one of their biggest winners of the year. They mention a good setup that ultimately led to a stop-out, illustrating the unpredictable nature of trading despite recognizing potential opportunities.
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03:35:45
Trading Setups
The speaker reflects on their trading experiences, noting a particularly good setup that they traded successfully. They mention another promising setup that was also present, indicating a pattern of identifying favorable trading conditions.
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03:36:04
SPG RCM Trade
The speaker expresses intrigue about SPG RCM, which has recently emerged from a low range and is influenced by news related to Amazon. They mention that SPG RCM has earnings scheduled after hours, but they believe this will not significantly impact the stock's performance. They caution that this trade is a variation of their usual strategies.
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03:36:47
Share Purchase
The speaker reveals that they purchased 31,000 shares of SPG RCM, acknowledging the risk that the stock could drop to $60 after hours due to upcoming earnings. They discuss the broader market trend, noting that stocks in sectors like cruise lines and airlines are showing momentum, suggesting a potential for growth.
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03:38:00
MCRP Performance
The speaker highlights MCRP's significant performance, noting it has increased by 600% on that day. They also mention other stocks, including NVAC, which had a perfect setup, emphasizing the importance of following specific trading rules to maximize profits.
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03:39:00
Trailing Shares Strategy
The speaker advocates for trailing some shares based on the 10-day moving average, explaining that this strategy can lead to substantial gains. They illustrate this with an example where a trader could have achieved a 260% increase on their remaining shares by adhering to this approach.
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03:39:45
OPK Trading Setup
The speaker discusses OPK, which they almost traded but found the setup to be choppy. They note that despite its imperfections, the stock has been building higher lows over several months, indicating potential for future gains, especially given its association with a leading sector.
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03:40:20
Overstock Setups
The speaker identifies Overstock as having multiple strong setups, emphasizing that if a trader had bought in at the right time, they would still be holding the stock due to it not closing below the 10-day moving average. They highlight that this stock has seen a 300% increase from its trigger point.
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03:41:26
Penn Trading Setup
The speaker notes that Penn had a promising setup but unfortunately did not experience much follow-through. They mention another setup for Penn, indicating ongoing interest in the stock despite its recent performance.
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03:41:36
Market Setup Analysis
The speaker discusses a market setup that initially appeared decent, noting a significant move after bouncing off the 50-day moving average. They mention the importance of higher lows and the potential for a gap up, although they caution that the setup may not have been entirely clean. They reflect on a secondary setup that would have resulted in a stop-out, emphasizing the need for careful analysis.
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03:42:13
Stock Entry Strategies
The speaker highlights the strategy of entering stocks that gap up, suggesting that a tight stop can be maintained by buying at the opening range highs. They express skepticism about finding good setups in certain stocks like Pivac and Redfin, indicating that while some setups may exist, they are not obvious or ideal.
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03:43:39
Trade Performance Reflection
Reflecting on their trading experience with SRNE, the speaker admits to not following their sell rules, which led to a less than optimal outcome. They describe a five-star setup that they are still holding, noting that it has doubled in value since entry. The setup is characterized by higher lows and a breakout day, demonstrating the importance of adhering to trading strategies.
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03:44:27
Momentum Leaders and Entry Points
The speaker identifies TRV as a decent setup, emphasizing the importance of being ready to buy at the opening range highs. They provide specific entry points, indicating that the entry should be below 185, with the average true range being 16 cents. They stress the significance of adhering to stop-loss rules based on the average true range.
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03:45:38
Stock Monitoring and Potential Setups
The speaker discusses monitoring stocks like UAVS and VSLR, noting that they trade similarly. They mention VXRT as potentially starting to build a setup with higher lows and a tight range, although it is not yet obvious. The speaker highlights the high average daily range (ADR) of 14.2% for VXRT, indicating a need for caution.
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03:46:08
Losses and Recovery Strategies
The speaker shares their experience with Workhorse, detailing a significant loss of $200,000 after being stopped out twice. They mention re-entering the stock and selling for a small loss, while expressing hope for the stock to close strong in the high 16s, which would indicate a potential recovery. They caution that the stock could easily break down to the 50-day moving average.
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03:47:00
Current Market Sentiment
The speaker expresses a lack of good setups in WTRH, noting that it has lost momentum after a prolonged sideways movement. They acknowledge a recent breakout on volume from a long range, suggesting that while the stock may have potential, the current sentiment is cautious.
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03:47:19
Stock Movement Principles
The speaker discusses a 'seven-star setup' on a five-star scale, emphasizing the importance of identifying tight trading ranges for optimal risk-reward scenarios. They illustrate how stocks typically move in a stair-step pattern, with each leg higher followed by a sideways consolidation. This principle has been consistent in stock movements over the past century, suggesting that traders should focus on these patterns to anticipate future price movements.
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03:49:24
Tesla's Market Position
Tesla has recently broken below its previous lows, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. The speaker notes that the 10, 20, and 65 EMA moving averages will now act as resistance levels. They predict that if Tesla retraces back into these moving averages, it is likely to sell off, with a potential pullback to around $1,000. The speaker mentions holding a short position of 3,900 shares, amounting to a $5.5 million investment, marking it as their largest position.
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03:50:20
Overstock's Trading Range
Overstock is currently forming a trading range characterized by lower highs and higher lows on the 60-minute chart. The speaker plans to cover their position if it breaks out of this range but is prepared to add to their short position if it breaks below. They anticipate a potential pullback of 20-30% from current levels, indicating a cautious but strategic approach to trading this stock.
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03:51:04
Chat Interaction and Stock Analysis
The speaker acknowledges the influx of messages in the chat but decides not to engage with them, focusing instead on their analysis. They reflect on a previous trade involving a stock they bought and sold based on its performance relative to the 10-day moving average, noting that they often avoid trailing stops when a stock is significantly extended. This decision highlights the speaker's strategy of prioritizing risk management over potential gains.
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03:52:20
Market Momentum and Stock Selection
The speaker expresses frustration with the lack of momentum in certain stocks, indicating that the current market conditions are not conducive to clean setups. They emphasize the importance of focusing on American stocks and suggest that some stocks may have the potential to build higher lows around the 50-day moving average, which could lead to better trading opportunities in the near future.
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03:53:30
TTD Trading Setup
The speaker recalls a previous five-star setup for TTD, where they and others had made purchases. However, they currently see no actionable opportunities in TTD, indicating a shift in market conditions that requires traders to remain vigilant and adaptable.
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03:53:49
OTC Stock Discussion
The speaker discusses OTC stocks, specifically mentioning a French UTC stock. They express frustration over the difficulty in obtaining stock tickers, noting that they typically consist of five-letter combinations like 'm m c p h y'. The speaker mentions potential setups for stocks like TFFP, indicating that they might develop by Friday.
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03:55:17
Trading vs. Investing
The speaker emphasizes their identity as a trader rather than an investor, dismissing the significance of insider buys. They reference mRNA, which experienced substantial insider sales since March or April, yet still saw a price increase of 100-200%. The speaker argues that momentum is key for traders, suggesting that stocks lacking momentum, regardless of insider sales, are not suitable for trading.
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03:56:14
Stock Setup Analysis
The speaker evaluates a stock named Wuban, indicating that it could be a potential buy if it breaks above the $30 mark on significant volume. However, they caution that it is currently not a setup due to its nature as a buyout. They also analyze DFS, describing it as a five-star setup that previously made a significant move before pulling back and finding support, ultimately leading to a 55% increase over a few weeks.
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03:57:39
ETFs and Trading Patterns
The speaker draws parallels between trading stocks and ETFs, noting that the same principles apply, such as high average daily range (ADR) and momentum. They highlight a good setup for ETFs, suggesting that if traders had entered in the high $44 to low $45 range, the stock could potentially rise to over $60.
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03:58:29
Random Stock Evaluation
The speaker critiques a stock named RDHL, labeling it as a random stock that has risen several days in a row without a clear setup. They mention a 'maybe' setup in the low $14 range, indicating that it had previously shown promise but is currently not a strong buy.
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03:59:09
Biotech Stock Risks
The speaker discusses a biotech stock, TX, which has no revenue and is set to report earnings in two days. They highlight the risks associated with such stocks, noting that if the reported data is unfavorable, the stock could plummet by 70% overnight. They commend a particular setup as a five-star opportunity, praising a user named 'violin stump' for identifying it.
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04:00:00
Setup Aesthetics
The speaker describes the appealing characteristics of a stock setup, emphasizing its ability to maintain higher lows while surfing the 20-day moving average. They express frustration over not being able to find a stock named 'mcphy' in their trading software, leading to a humorous remark about 'French dogs'.
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04:00:30
Trading Small Accounts
The speaker emphasizes that individuals with small trading accounts, specifically those under $10,000 to $15,000, should focus on trading American stocks or those listed on pink sheets. They highlight the importance of selecting stocks that are accessible for trading and can be shorted effectively.
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04:01:01
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses the current market conditions, noting that certain stocks have lost momentum and are not presenting good setups. They mention that a stock should ideally hold above its 10, 20, or 50-day moving averages, but some have broken down and are now sluggish, indicating a lack of trading opportunities.
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04:01:47
Stock Performance and Strategy
The speaker analyzes specific stocks, mentioning TTD, which is currently at its 10-day moving average, and expresses uncertainty about whether to sell if it closes below this level. They also discuss using the 10 and 20-day moving averages as trailing stops, indicating a flexible approach depending on the stock's performance.
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04:02:40
Earnings Reports and Risk Management
The speaker notes that Peloton is set to report earnings after hours the following day and plans to move their stop loss aggressively to mitigate risk. They express concern about the potential for a significant gap down in the stock price, indicating a strategy to sell shares before the earnings report unless the stock shows strong closing performance.
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04:03:22
Excitement in Trading
The speaker shares their enthusiasm for trading, particularly when they catch a stock that performs unexpectedly well, such as SRNA. They describe the thrill of identifying a stock that appears to have modest potential but then experiences significant gains, reflecting their passion for such trading experiences.
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04:04:09
Market Trends and Sector Performance
The speaker observes that certain sectors, including gas and airlines, are moving in the market. They mention the need for stocks to regain momentum and highlight that some stocks are currently stagnant, requiring further developments or news to stimulate movement.
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04:06:20
Stock Selection Criteria
The speaker discusses the importance of waiting for stocks to break out before making trades, particularly for low-volume stocks. They advise that traders with small accounts should be cautious and consider the stock's potential for movement before engaging, emphasizing the need for careful analysis.
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04:07:02
Critique of Social Media in Trading
The speaker expresses disdain for platforms like StockTwits, describing them as filled with uninformed individuals discussing stocks. They argue that focusing on solid trading setups will yield better financial results over time than engaging with social media discussions about stocks.
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04:07:22
Stock Market Critique
The speaker expresses frustration with uninformed traders in the stock market, describing them as 'the dumbest of the dump' and 'clueless people' who blindly promote their favorite stocks. He warns that any negative mention of a stock can provoke aggressive reactions from these traders, whom he labels as 'crazy maniacs' and 'trolls.' He concludes that there is no real value in such stock discussions.
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04:08:06
Trading Strategies
As the stream concludes, the speaker encourages viewers to study trading setups independently, emphasizing the importance of identifying recurring patterns in successful stocks. He suggests that discovering unique patterns could lead to profitable trading methods, highlighting that these patterns tend to repeat over time.
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04:08:50
Kumu Stock Analysis
The speaker identifies Kumu as a promising stock, describing it as a 'five-star setup' with potential gains of 20 cents to a dollar or two. He advises that Kumu is suitable for traders with small accounts, specifically those with $10,000 to $20,000, while recommending that larger account holders avoid it due to its high liquidity.
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04:10:06
Trading Advice
Before ending the stream, the speaker reiterates the importance of studying setups rather than engaging in impulsive trading. He advises against trading like 'crazy maniacs' unless one is a day trader, emphasizing that the rest of the day should be spent analyzing trading setups.
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04:11:52
Canopy Stock Discussion
The speaker briefly discusses Canopy stock, recalling its history as a crypto stock in early 2017, before confirming that it has always been a cannabis stock. This highlights the evolving nature of stock identities in the market.
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04:12:46
Tesla Stock Position
The speaker shares his trading position on Tesla, revealing that he held 3,000 shares at the close of the previous day and covered 2,000 shares following split news, leaving him short 1,000 shares. He indicates that he will provide further insights on Tesla later in the discussion.
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04:14:02
Square and Fiverr Analysis
In response to a question about Square and Fiverr, the speaker suggests that Square may need a few weeks to stabilize before a good trading opportunity arises. He mentions that he is currently short on Fiverr, anticipating a pullback to the mid-low $80s in the coming weeks, while also noting that a favorable long setup may emerge in the future.
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04:15:06
Market Sentiment
The speaker expresses skepticism about certain stocks, describing them as 'slow movers' and advising against trading them. He mentions a specific stock, indicating that it is not a momentum leader and has been sluggish in performance over the past few months.
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04:16:03
Exart Team Update
The speaker reassures that Exart is not failing but is merely digesting its recent moves, finding support on the rising 20 EMA. He notes a midday reversal in the stock's performance, questioning the reason behind the sudden change, as it had previously been down significantly on the day.
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04:21:09
Buyout Candidate
The speaker mentions a stock that is considered a buyout candidate, indicating potential interest from larger entities in acquiring it, although further details are not provided.
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04:21:14
Research on Buyout
The speaker expresses uncertainty about a potential buyout deal, indicating that further research is needed. They mention that the Average Daily Range (ADR) is 2.1 and advise checking past swing trading schools available on their YouTube channel, emphasizing the importance of including ADR in stock scans.
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04:22:16
Market Conditions and Trading Strategy
The speaker notes that the market is currently in a 'shoppy' period, with limited exciting setups. They mention that Tesla is their primary focus for the day, and they have shorted 10,000 shares of TQQ in anticipation of a deeper market pullback, possibly back to the low hundreds.
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04:23:32
Tesla Stock Analysis
Tesla is gapping up due to stock split news, but the speaker highlights that it is approaching a declining 65 EMA. They plan to add back 2,000 shares if the stock shows signs of rejection, having previously covered shares near the high of 1487. The pre-market high is noted at 1490, and the speaker reflects on the unpredictability of stock movements.
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04:24:44
Overstock Trading Activity
The speaker discusses their trading activity with Overstock, mentioning a 20% bounce after covering some shares into weakness. They added 8,000 shares after a range break in the low 97s and are currently holding 29,000 shares, anticipating a price increase to at least $70, possibly $60, over the coming weeks.
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04:25:28
Personal Trading Experience
The speaker recounts a challenging day of trading from their car due to a dentist appointment, which caused delays. They mention shorting NVAX at opening range lows and adding more shares later in the day, totaling 11,800 shares shorted. They also comment on the weakness of Fiverr and their strategy regarding ZS, planning to exit if it closes below the 50-day moving average.
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04:26:58
Trading Philosophy
The speaker emphasizes that personal feelings towards a stock or company should not influence trading decisions. They advocate for buying stocks with strong setups, regardless of personal opinions. They recount a personal experience where they bought a stock that subsequently rose 42% over several sessions, highlighting that the stock was among the strongest in the market, reaching all-time highs recently.
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04:28:40
Market Analysis
The speaker notes a lack of compelling trading setups on the current day, suggesting that it is a time for managing existing positions rather than seeking new opportunities. They mention Pinterest as a potential interest for the following week, citing its strong performance post-earnings with a high trading volume of 112 million shares, and their own position of 20,000 shares after selling a third of their initial 30,000 shares.
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04:29:52
Stock Performance Review
The speaker reviews several stocks, noting that mRNA is gapping up but may face rejection at the 20-day moving average. They mention LRN, which they bought but got stopped out, and XP, which reported earnings but lacks a strong setup. They also comment on CHWY, which is experiencing a significant drop due to disappointing earnings.
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04:31:00
Setup Evaluation
The speaker evaluates various stocks for potential setups, indicating that while SUV had a good setup previously, it currently lacks a favorable setup. They express a more positive outlook on Tiger, describing it as a decent four-star setup. They also mention PRPL, which had a five-star setup but may need more time to develop a new opportunity.
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04:32:15
Market Trends and Speculation
The speaker discusses Voxel, describing it as a pump related to Samsung products, suggesting that the perceived partnership is misleading. They express skepticism about the stock's legitimacy, indicating that retail investors may be misled. They also briefly mention other stocks like LPSN and Nugget, noting a lack of immediate trading opportunities.
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04:33:10
Market Overview
The markets are showing a significant upward gap, while Overstock is experiencing relative weakness, indicating a downward gap. The speaker is primarily focused on Tesla as the market opens.
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04:34:03
Tesla Short Position
The speaker has initiated a short position on Tesla, starting with 1,300 shares and increasing to a total of 2,600 shares. They express confidence in the tight stop-loss strategy associated with Tesla trading.
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04:35:43
Unbox Short Position
The speaker has added 3,500 shares to their short position in Unbox, citing a significant potential downside as the 50-day moving average is nearly 30% lower than the current price.
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04:36:42
Market Trends
Tesla is showing positive follow-through from the opening range lows, while the speaker notes that Unbox could potentially decline another 30%. They highlight that Unbox has risen significantly, up 400-500% since January, and a pullback would be a healthy correction.
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04:37:46
XP Earnings Breakout
XP is breaking out following earnings, and while the setup is decent, the speaker notes that recent breakouts have lacked follow-through, which is a critical consideration for traders.
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04:39:14
2019 Market Performance
Reflecting on 2019, the speaker describes it as an incredible year for momentum trading, particularly in the first few months and the last two months, highlighting the strong breakout opportunities available during that time.
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04:41:06
Stock Analysis
The speaker discusses various stocks, including Envo and VFF, noting their lack of clean trends and recommending avoidance due to their choppy price action, especially for micro-cap stocks.
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04:42:34
Trading Opportunities
The speaker emphasizes that there are always significant opportunities to make money in trading, asserting that short-term traders should have no excuse for not achieving at least 100% returns annually.
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04:43:40
Overstock and Market Strategy
The speaker mentions their short position in Overstock, indicating that they believe it has no support until it reaches the rising 20-day moving average. They anticipate a potential opportunity to add to their position if it breaks below the day's lows.
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04:45:08
Pinterest Price Action
The speaker observes bullish price action in Pinterest, noting that it has reclaimed the 10-day moving average and is approaching the rising 65 EMA. They predict a strong buying opportunity next week, with a target of potentially reaching above $50.
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04:46:12
Market Setup Discussion
The discussion begins with a focus on the setup for an unspecified stock, with the speaker expressing uncertainty about its viability. They mention the need for a clearer setup, suggesting that perhaps a better opportunity might arise in the following week.
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04:47:22
Stock Analysis: SHLL
The speaker analyzes SHLL, noting its movement around the 50-day moving average. They categorize it as a 'pump stock' lacking institutional quality, indicating that it could become interesting if it breaks above the high $20 range.
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04:48:00
Stock Analysis: BAC
The speaker critiques BAC for its low Average Daily Range (ADR) of 2.8, labeling it as a slow-moving stock that has been rising without a clear setup. They emphasize the importance of understanding specific setups and encourage revisiting educational materials on short selling.
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04:49:00
Stock Analysis: Nicola and Peloton
The speaker briefly mentions Nicola, questioning its setup, and discusses Peloton, from which they were stopped out. They express hope for Peloton's sideways movement in the coming week, indicating it is currently holding above the 20-day moving average.
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04:49:51
Stock Analysis: Tupperware
Tupperware is highlighted as a promising stock, with the speaker noting its clean movement and potential for a breakout in the coming days. They advise waiting for sideways action and tightness before making a move.
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04:50:21
Stock Analysis: CSIQ
The speaker dismisses CSIQ, suggesting that other stocks in the solar sector, specifically scdg and EMPH, are setting up better for the following week. They express a preference for these alternatives over CSIQ.
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04:51:01
Breakout Criteria
The speaker outlines criteria for identifying breakout stocks, emphasizing the importance of being within 10, 20, or 50-day moving averages. They critique a stock for being too far above these averages, indicating it has already made a significant move.
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04:52:06
Stock Analysis: GSX
GSX is noted for bouncing off the 20-day moving average, which the speaker considers bullish. They mention having covered some shares but still holding onto half from the previous week.
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04:52:25
Stock Analysis: Pinterest
Pinterest is described as looking 'absolutely great' for the upcoming week, with the speaker identifying numerous potential setups. However, they caution that many of these setups require additional time to develop.
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04:53:01
Market Update: IGC
The session concludes with a surprising update that IGC has been halted, indicating a significant market event.
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04:53:35
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses the need for the 10-day moving average to catch up with recent price movements, indicating that the current setup is too far above the 10-day average. They suggest that the market may stabilize next week when the 20-day moving average catches up, leading to tighter price action.
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04:54:13
Stock Recommendations
The speaker mentions PBI as a potential short but notes a lack of a clear setup. They highlight that PBI has doubled in value over the past few weeks and suggest monitoring the 60-minute chart for a potential pullback if it loses the $6.35 area.
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04:54:36
Silo Stock Position
The speaker expresses a long position in Silo, which they bought based on a strong four-and-a-half-star setup. They emphasize the need for Silo to move sideways for a couple of weeks to allow the 10 and 20-day moving averages to catch up, indicating that there is currently no clear setup for trading.
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04:55:23
Trading Volume Guidelines
The speaker advises traders to set a minimum volume cutoff of at least $5 million for their scans, as they believe trading stocks with lower volumes, such as those trading a few hundred thousand dollars daily, is too random. They suggest that traders should multiply their account size by 50 or 100 to determine an appropriate volume cutoff.
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04:56:54
Trading Strategy
The speaker reflects on the repetitive nature of their advice, emphasizing the importance of a specific trading setup that can be executed without full-time commitment. They encourage traders to spend 10-15 minutes scanning for setups, highlighting that the simplicity of the strategy allows for potential significant profits with minimal cognitive load.
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05:00:34
Market Conditions
The speaker notes that mRNA has sold off on news and is now at the 50-day moving average. They express frustration with traders posting tickets with an Average Daily Range (ADR) of less than five, indicating that breakout trading is ineffective in the current market conditions, which are not strong.
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05:01:34
Trading Strategy
During periods of market downturns, particularly when the 10-day moving average falls below the 20-day moving average, the speaker emphasizes the importance of refraining from breakout trading. Instead, traders should take a break, enjoy life, and wait for more favorable conditions. The speaker notes that significant profits can be made when the moving averages start to rise again, suggesting that patience during bad times is crucial for long-term success.
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05:02:52
Market Conditions
The speaker describes different market conditions, highlighting that sideways markets can be challenging, and breaking even during these times is a sign of good trading. However, when the market conditions improve, traders can potentially double or triple their accounts. The speaker reiterates the cyclical nature of trading, where periods of low activity are followed by opportunities for substantial gains.
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05:04:07
Technical Analysis Tools
The speaker discusses the use of TC2000 for technical analysis, mentioning that it offers a free version with a slight delay. He encourages traders to utilize this tool for various indicators, emphasizing that real-time data can also be accessed through other platforms like TradingView. The speaker stresses the importance of using the Average Daily Range (ADR) to identify suitable trading opportunities.
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05:04:44
Stock Selection
The speaker critiques Visa as a stock with low Average Daily Range (ADR), labeling it a slow-moving mega-cap stock that has been stuck in a trading range for months. He advises traders to avoid such stocks, as they do not present good trading setups. Instead, he suggests focusing on stocks capable of making significant moves, ideally those that can increase by 10% in a single day.
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05:06:00
Educational Resources
The speaker directs listeners to his blog, 'shortsandstories.com', for further insights and resources. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the Average Daily Range (ADR) formula before engaging with him on social media, indicating that this knowledge is foundational for effective trading.
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05:07:15
Scanning for Opportunities
The speaker provides a brief tutorial on setting up scans in TC2000, focusing on criteria such as dollar volume. He suggests that traders should only consider stocks with a dollar volume greater than five million, indicating that this threshold is essential for identifying viable trading opportunities.
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05:07:59
Trading Conditions
The speaker discusses setting up trading conditions, suggesting a minimum dollar volume cutoff of at least $10 million. They emphasize the importance of using indicators like Average Daily Range (ADR) and outline the steps to create new conditions for scanning stocks, including past gainers over one month, three months, and six months.
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05:10:10
Scan Criteria
The speaker details the criteria for stock scans, recommending that ADR should be greater than four, with a preference for five or six, especially for smaller accounts. They also suggest a minimum dollar volume of $5 to $10 million. The speaker notes that the number of candidates may vary, especially shortly after the market opens, and mentions adjusting criteria based on the number of results obtained.
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05:11:40
Trading Experience
The speaker expresses excitement over a significant trade, nearly $700,000, and reflects on the challenges of shorting stocks, advising against it for those with less than a few million in their accounts. They mention a recent shorting experience with Tesla, where they incurred a $30,000 loss on 2,600 shares but retained 1,000 shares to monitor after-hours performance.
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05:13:26
Stock Performance
The speaker discusses the performance of various stocks, including Tesla and biotech stocks like Envax. They mention having 10,000 shares short of Envax and consider covering 4,000 shares due to its performance. The speaker highlights the volatility and risks associated with trading micro and small-cap biotech stocks.
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05:14:33
Trading Advice
The speaker advises against trading small-cap biotechs, suggesting that there are many good setups available in non-biotech stocks. They emphasize the importance of avoiding uncertain trades.
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05:15:00
Charting Tools
The speaker mentions that they do not use TC2000 for trading but instead utilize it to visualize stop areas on charts. They find it easier to keep track of their trades this way.
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05:15:36
Volume Recommendations
The speaker suggests that traders should focus on stocks with a volume of at least 10 million, as they believe this threshold is more indicative of viable trading opportunities.
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05:16:01
TC2000 Features
The speaker notes that TC2000 does not have shark tools or scanning capabilities, which are important for effective trading. They discuss the pricing of TC2000, indicating that the silver plan costs $25 per month, which they believe is a worthwhile investment for serious traders.
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05:17:30
Investment in Tools
The speaker stresses the importance of investing in the right trading tools if one is serious about making trading a profession. They mention that replicating the ADR formula in Think or Swim is acceptable, but the focus should be on identifying the strongest and most volatile stocks.
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05:18:41
Stock Selection
The speaker emphasizes that to achieve aggressive returns, traders must focus on fast-moving stocks rather than slow ones. They suggest that those without substantial capital should avoid slow-moving stocks, which are typically favored by wealthier traders.
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05:19:22
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses their trading activity with Tesla, indicating that they are closely monitoring its performance around the $1500 area. They express a bullish sentiment regarding Tesla's current market action.
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05:20:01
Loss Management
The speaker shares their experience of taking a $45,000 loss on TQQQ after shorting it the previous day. They reflect on how small losses can accumulate but emphasize that catching a significant trade can lead to substantial profits.
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05:21:06
Tesla's Performance
The speaker speculates on Tesla's potential price movements, noting that it is currently in the middle of a range. They are waiting for more information to determine whether to go long or short, depending on whether Tesla can reclaim the high $1400 area.
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05:22:14
Overstock Potential
The speaker expresses optimism about Overstock's potential to perform similarly to NVAX, indicating that they would be pleased if Overstock were to break out in a similar fashion.
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05:22:22
Stock Trading Strategy
The speaker discusses a plan to increase their stock holdings, mentioning an initial purchase of 29,000 shares and the intention to add another 10 to 15 shares. They emphasize the importance of identifying five-star setups in trading, describing a scenario where a stock experiences a pullback, builds higher lows, and eventually breaks out of a tight range. The speaker advises selling a portion of shares after a few days of gains and stresses the significance of trailing stops to capture potential home runs in the market, which can lead to substantial profits.
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05:24:14
Facebook Trading Caution
The speaker mentions Facebook as a slow-moving stock that is not advisable for trading due to its lack of volatility. They suggest that traders should avoid engaging with Facebook's stock because of its sluggish performance.
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05:24:38
Solar Sector Analysis
The speaker expresses interest in solar stocks, particularly mentioning 'RUN' and 'EMPH', noting their consistent strength. They express a preference for 'EMPH' due to its tighter setup, while acknowledging uncertainty about the overall sector's performance. The speaker also references other solar stocks like 'FSLR' and 'SPWR', indicating a general breakout trend in the sector.
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05:25:32
Short Seller Reports
The speaker discusses the impact of short seller reports on 'EMPH', referencing a specific report from mid-July 2018 that claimed the stock was worth only $1.01 per share when it was trading at $6. They highlight that similar reports have emerged over the years, including one from Citron Research when the stock was at $24. Despite these negative reports, the speaker notes that the stock has performed well, suggesting that traders should focus on price action rather than short seller opinions.
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05:27:08
Critique of Short Seller Analysis
The speaker critiques the reliability of short seller analysis, citing examples like 'GSX' which was heavily criticized by both Citron and Muddy Waters but subsequently rose by 300%. They argue that many short seller reports are ineffective and often misleading, sharing a personal anecdote about a stock that plummeted due to a short report early in their trading career, illustrating the mixed results of such analyses.
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05:28:02
Current Market Observations
The speaker notes that 'W' is currently performing well, riding the 10 EMA on the 60-minute chart, indicating strong demand. They mention purchasing 'DraftKings' the previous day, describing it as a slower breakout setup. The speaker observes that Tesla is performing positively, and highlights a recent trend of morning strength in the market, which has been consistent over the past three days.
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05:28:46
Short Selling
The speaker critiques short sellers, particularly referencing Citron's negative stance on Shopify when its stock was around $100. He argues that Shopify, with over 2,500 merchants and 20,000 advanced users, is a more robust business than Herbalife (HLF). He highlights that Citron set a price target of $60 when Shopify was trading at $115, but now the stock has soared to over $1,000, emphasizing the risks of short selling without solid evidence of fraud.
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05:30:07
Media Attention
The speaker shares his surprise at receiving attention from the Wall Street Journal regarding his Kodak trade. He recalls posting a video on YouTube about his Kodak trade, which unexpectedly went viral, garnering more interactions than all his previous tweets combined over several years. He expresses disbelief at the media interest, particularly from such a prominent outlet.
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05:32:07
Community Engagement
The speaker addresses his audience, cautioning them about the influx of inexperienced individuals in the trading community. He humorously notes that he has been present before gaining fame and mentions the need for moderation in his online channels to maintain order and address repetitive questions from followers.
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05:34:06
Gambling Losses
The speaker recounts a friend's significant gambling loss of approximately $1.5 million on Kodak stock, highlighting the risks associated with trading. He expresses a desire to be featured in market research publications, viewing it as a dream opportunity, and reflects on the potential for an article about Kodak that may include quotes from him.
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05:36:19
Stock Analysis
The speaker expresses optimism about the stock PDD, noting its upcoming earnings report and the strength of its price action. He observes that the stock has been building higher lows and is currently positioned within a favorable range, indicating a potential for upward movement.
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05:39:01
Stock Performance
The speaker notes that various stocks are performing well, particularly highlighting Shopify and Spotify, although they are still deep in the red. The speaker mentions that while some stocks are starting to break out, the current setups are not clean enough to warrant additional investments.
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05:40:03
Kodak's Intraday Movement
Kodak's stock experienced significant volatility, doubling intraday with three halts on the way up and two on the way down. This movement is contrasted with the fading performance of airlines and cruise lines, while growth stocks begin to gain momentum.
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05:40:30
Trading Strategies for Small Accounts
The speaker emphasizes that traders with small accounts have a unique advantage in the market, particularly when trading stocks with a high Average Daily Range (ADR). They encourage focusing on stocks with an ADR of at least five or six, as these can yield substantial returns, unlike larger stocks such as Amazon or Facebook.
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05:41:43
Market Analysis and Setups
The discussion shifts to a specific stock, Kumon, which is currently experiencing a pump but is failing. The speaker advises that if one has bought into it, their stop loss should be set at the low of the breakout day. They also compare the ADR of Kumon to other mega-cap stocks, noting that Kumon has a relatively high ADR of 5.8.
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05:43:04
Spotify's Breakout Failure
The speaker reflects on their previous discussions about Spotify, noting that they have already been stopped out of their position. Despite its potential, Spotify failed to maintain its breakout on that day.
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05:44:09
Crypto Trading Techniques
The speaker plans to discuss crypto swing trading, asserting that the techniques applicable to stocks are also effective in the crypto market. They emphasize that all asset classes exhibit similar movement patterns, which can be leveraged for trading success.
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05:45:07
Focus on Trading Setups
The speaker advises against front-running other chat rooms and emphasizes the importance of focusing on one's own trading setups rather than being influenced by others. They mention that large-cap stocks are less likely to be significantly affected by small day trading rooms.
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05:45:36
CWH Stock Setup
The speaker notes that CWH had a favorable setup a few days prior and is now following through. They describe the ideal trading pattern of a significant move followed by a pullback, leading to the establishment of higher lows, which is a positive indicator for traders.
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05:45:48
Twitter Analysis
The speaker discusses Twitter's recent performance, noting it has broken out of a previous range and is now in a 'four and a half star setup.' They compare Twitter's current trajectory to its behavior in May 2018, where it built higher lows before a significant price increase. The speaker believes Twitter could replicate this pattern, especially with the potential catalyst of a subscription model, despite the lack of current earnings to support its growth.
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05:47:49
Trading Advice
The speaker advises against trading Twitter for most individuals, emphasizing that it is not suitable for those without substantial capital. They mention that there are better trading options available and caution against engaging with lower average daily range (ADR) stocks unless one has millions in their trading account.
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05:49:09
Stock Setup Evaluations
The speaker evaluates various stocks, indicating that there are no current setups for FLGT and AXU, labeling them as unsuitable for trading. They express a preference for larger cap stocks over small caps, which they advise avoiding due to their volatility. The speaker also mentions that DraftKings is not a viable trading option at this time.
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05:50:02
Neon and Valencia Stocks
The speaker identifies Neon as having a promising setup, while also highlighting Valencia's recent strong performance. They suggest that Valencia could yield significant profits, indicating that it had a good setup a couple of days prior.
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05:51:00
Market Movement Strategy
The speaker outlines their strategy for trading stocks and cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the importance of timing. They describe the typical movement pattern of assets as stair-like, where prices make a significant move, then consolidate or pull back before making another move. The speaker stresses the importance of buying at the right moment when a stock begins to build the next step higher, acknowledging that while their win rate is only 25%, the focus should be on minimizing losses and maximizing gains.
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05:52:37
Bitcoin Analysis
The discussion begins with an analysis of Bitcoin's price movements, tracing back to early 2012 when it was relatively unknown and illiquid. The speaker highlights the initial breakout patterns, emphasizing the importance of moving averages, particularly the 10 and 20-day averages, which serve as support during price consolidations. The speaker notes that Bitcoin's price exhibited a series of higher lows and tight trading ranges, leading to multiple breakout opportunities.
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05:54:01
Price Movements and Breakouts
The speaker elaborates on Bitcoin's price action, describing how it consistently respected the 10-day moving average, which acted as a trailing stop. The price surged from approximately $1,340 to $2,600, marking a significant increase, referred to as a '20 bagger.' The speaker identifies a particularly strong setup characterized by a high tide flag pattern, which resulted in a 400-500% increase within a month, followed by a necessary period of consolidation.
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05:55:49
Consolidation and New Trends
After a substantial price increase, Bitcoin entered a phase of consolidation, pulling back to the 50-day moving average and forming higher lows. The speaker notes that while the subsequent setups were not as powerful, they still presented trading opportunities. The price tightened around the moving averages, leading to another breakout, which the speaker describes as a perfect setup, resulting in a significant price increase over a few months.
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05:57:00
Recent Price Action
The analysis continues with Bitcoin's more recent price action, where the speaker observes a new trend forming after a period of stagnation. The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying tight trading ranges, which signal potential breakouts. Although the latest breakout did not yield the same explosive returns as previous moves, it still represented a decent trading opportunity. The speaker concludes by noting the importance of monitoring the 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages for future setups.
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05:57:45
Market Setup Analysis
The speaker reflects on the market conditions in 2017, expressing a desire for a tighter range over a few more days before a breakout. They note that while the setup isn't ideal, it still worked, albeit with limited follow-through. The discussion highlights the importance of identifying good setups across various asset classes, particularly during the crypto bubble period.
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05:59:01
Identifying Trading Patterns
The speaker emphasizes the necessity of focusing on good setups, even when stocks may rise from poor setups. They observe that the stock is currently moving higher, having found support on the 20-day moving average, and suggest that a potential setup could emerge in the coming week. They also draw parallels with Ethereum, noting similar trading patterns and setups, including a five-star setup that resulted in significant gains.
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06:00:06
Market Movement Dynamics
The speaker discusses the cyclical nature of stock movements, likening them to stairs, where each step represents a price increase. They illustrate this with Bitcoin's trading history, indicating that identifying the next 'step' before a breakout is crucial for traders. They acknowledge that while a trader won't win every time, a single successful trade can compensate for numerous losses.
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06:02:05
Viva Stock Analysis
Transitioning to a discussion on Viva, the speaker describes it as a challenging stock to trade due to its erratic behavior, characterized by frequent ups and downs. Despite this volatility, Viva continues to trend higher, which complicates trading strategies. The speaker notes that similar patterns are observed in other stocks, such as Zen, which also exhibit significant price movements interspersed with numerous red days.
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06:03:11
Stock Trading Insights
The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying stocks that exhibit strong movement patterns, comparing them to companies like Tesla, Shopify, and AMD. He notes that recognizing these patterns takes time and experience, suggesting that traders should focus on stocks that show significant volatility and movement.
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06:03:55
XRP and Ripple Analysis
The discussion shifts to XRP (Ripple), which is currently lagging behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. The speaker observes that XRP is building a potential base but has not made significant moves recently. He mentions that other cryptocurrencies like Litecoin also lack setups, indicating a cautious approach to trading these assets.
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06:05:18
Net Stock Performance
The speaker reflects on the stock 'Net', describing it as choppy but noting that it has been tightening up, which could indicate a potential breakout. He shares his personal experience of getting stopped out multiple times before it finally moved in a favorable direction, highlighting the challenges of trading in volatile markets.
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06:06:01
Twitter Position Update
The speaker reveals that Twitter is his largest position, even surpassing JD. He contemplates selling a small portion of his shares, mentioning that his selling strategy differs from conventional advice, which typically suggests a three to five-day sell rule followed by trailing the remaining shares.
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06:07:01
Crypto-Related Stocks
The speaker discusses a crypto-related stock, indicating that it is currently underperforming but is building higher lows, suggesting a potential for future growth. He plans to cover his position if it closes unfavorably, while also expressing optimism about going long next week if certain conditions are met.
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06:08:00
Trailing Stop Strategies
The speaker explains his approach to trailing stops, particularly for lower Average Daily Range (ADR) stocks like JD. He prefers using the 20-day moving average for these stocks, contrasting it with his strategy for higher ADR stocks, where he uses the 10-day moving average. He emphasizes the importance of adapting strategies based on stock volatility.
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06:09:01
Alcoholics Anonymous Stock Setup
The speaker expresses a positive outlook on Alcoholics Anonymous, noting its recent breakout and strong setup characterized by a series of higher lows and tight trading ranges. He rates it as a four-star setup, indicating confidence in its potential for continued upward movement.
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06:09:37
Trading View ADR Confirmation
The speaker seeks confirmation regarding the Average Daily Range (ADR) indicator on Trading View, specifically referencing the one by Alpine Trader. This highlights the importance of accurate tools and data in making informed trading decisions.
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06:09:54
About Page Update
The speaker emphasizes the importance of their 'About' page, suggesting that newcomers should read it for answers to their questions. They mention that the page is linked across various platforms including Twitch, Twitter, and YouTube.
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06:11:00
Trading Strategy Discussion
The speaker discusses their trading strategy, specifically mentioning the Average Daily Range (ADR) in trading. They reference a specific setup that appears promising, particularly if it breaks the 254 area, indicating a potential upward movement.
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06:13:11
Trade Execution and Risk
The speaker shares their trading decision to risk $65,000 on a trade involving 100,000 shares, highlighting their thought process in choosing a round number for shares. They express satisfaction with this decision, indicating confidence in the trade's potential.
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06:14:15
Earnings Breakout Analysis
The speaker analyzes a stock, JD, describing it as a 'five-star breakout' that has been building higher lows. They note the significance of earnings breakouts, particularly when the stock does not gap up excessively, and share their experience of buying it in pre-market trading.
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06:15:47
Re-buying Strategy
The speaker discusses the importance of being able to re-buy a stock after being shaken out of a position, using Spotify as an example. They emphasize the need to assess buying power and the quality of the setup before making a decision to re-enter a trade.
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06:16:17
Market Observation
The speaker expresses interest in monitoring a stock, referred to as 'double G', for potential trading opportunities. They note the stock's price movement and volume, indicating a preference for stocks that show strong upward trends and the potential for better short setups.
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06:17:12
Liquidity Considerations
The speaker reflects on the liquidity of the stocks they are considering, stating a preference for trading with larger volumes (100,000 to 150,000 shares). They acknowledge the current stock's liquidity limitations but remain open to trading smaller sizes if the setup is favorable.
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06:18:08
Indicator Clarification
The speaker discusses confusion regarding the term 'arvo' and its relation to Average Daily Range (ADR) and relative volume. They clarify that volume and price range are distinct concepts, indicating a need for further understanding of trading indicators.
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06:18:11
Volume Indicators
The speaker expresses skepticism about the value of horizontal volume indicators, stating they have never found them useful. They suggest that visual observation of volume trends, such as on a 60-minute chart for Twitter, is often sufficient to gauge market activity without relying on indicators. They note that today appears to be an average volume day based on visual cues.
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06:20:40
Trading Strategies
The speaker discusses their trading strategy, mentioning the use of a 20-day moving average as a trailing stop. They recount a personal experience where they were stopped out of a position due to market fluctuations, highlighting the challenges of trading and the inevitability of being shaken out of positions. They emphasize that trading can be difficult and unpredictable.
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06:22:48
Day Trading Challenges
The speaker reflects on the difficulties of day trading, citing a video about a top trader at a prop firm who earns $300,000 per year after 20 years of trading. They argue that such earnings are insufficient for someone with that level of experience, suggesting that day trading is not a viable path for significant financial success. Instead, they advocate for swing trading as a more effective strategy.
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06:23:58
Market Opportunities
The speaker notes that the current year has presented exceptional trading opportunities, more than any year since 2000. They mention a trader known as 'short the bear' who has reportedly made $6 million this year, indicating that the market conditions have been favorable for traders who are willing to put in the necessary effort and time.
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06:25:06
Commitment to Trading
The speaker admires the dedication of a young trader, 'short the bear,' who has logged over 350 hours studying the markets. They emphasize that achieving significant financial success in trading requires a substantial commitment of time and effort, underscoring the importance of preparation and understanding market setups.
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06:25:31
Self-Reflection
The speaker expresses a sense of urgency to improve his performance, feeling overshadowed by a 21-year-old who has earned nearly half of his income this year. He humorously remarks on the need to 'up his game' and jokingly mentions his intention to 'crush' the younger competitor.
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06:26:19
Financial Performance
The speaker discusses his financial achievements, estimating his earnings to be around 12 to 13 million dollars this year. He reflects on the significance of reaching double-digit millions, suggesting that minor fluctuations in earnings become less relevant at that level.
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06:27:44
Media Engagement
The speaker expresses frustration over a lack of response from a Wall Street Journal journalist after reaching out via email. He contemplates tweeting the journalist to prompt a reply, emphasizing his desire to be featured in the publication.
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06:28:44
Tax Considerations
The speaker discusses the appeal of countries without capital gains tax, noting that many such countries are not desirable places to live. He mentions Singapore and Switzerland as examples, but expresses uncertainty about relocating to either due to personal connections and time zone challenges.
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06:30:01
Travel and Relocation
The speaker reflects on potential relocation options, mentioning Estonia as a viable choice due to its proximity to his current location. He humorously notes the limitations of his current boat for travel across the Baltic Sea, indicating a need for a larger vessel.
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06:31:11
Climate Concerns
The speaker dismisses the idea of moving to Saudi Arabia, humorously commenting on the extreme heat of the region and questioning what he would do there. He seeks confirmation from others about the hot climate in Saudi Arabia.
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06:33:33
Business Ventures
The speaker contemplates starting a new company to optimize his tax situation, admitting to a sense of laziness in pursuing this goal. He acknowledges the need to be more proactive in managing his financial responsibilities.
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06:34:22
Trading Experience
The speaker states that he has never traded Forex and likely never will. He briefly evaluates the performance of a stock named Matador, describing it as decent but slow-moving, typical of commodity-related stocks.
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06:35:09
Investment Goals
The speaker shares his investment journey, revealing that he has grown his account from approximately 4 million to about 17.5 million dollars this year. He expresses a desire to reach the milestone of 20 million dollars, indicating that he needs significant trades to achieve this goal.
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06:36:16
Trading Goals
The speaker expresses an ambitious goal of trading to reach $100 million, starting with an initial capital of $20 million and aiming for $50 million within a timeframe of a couple of months to a couple of years, although he acknowledges that past returns are not indicative of future performance.
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06:36:31
Market Analysis
The speaker discusses a recent trading setup involving a stock that he missed, indicating that he was hoping for a few more days of sideways movement before entering. He reflects on the challenges of trading setups that appear broken but can still yield significant returns, noting that the stock in question has risen 65% since his analysis.
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06:37:13
Trading Philosophy
He emphasizes the importance of having a profitable trading setup, suggesting that many individuals fail to make money in trading because they lack a solid strategy and have not studied the markets adequately. He contrasts his approach with those who rely on shortcuts or mechanical practices without putting in the necessary hard work.
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06:39:07
Motivation for Trading
The speaker shares his motivation for continuing to trade, questioning what else he would do with his time if not trading. He humorously suggests alternatives like dating or coding but ultimately concludes that trading is his primary focus and passion.
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06:41:03
Educational Resources
He encourages listeners to visit his blog and YouTube channel for resources on swing trading, indicating that he plans to update his content to include more educational materials. He mentions the need to create a playlist on YouTube for better organization of his swing trading school videos.
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06:48:40
Trading Tools
The speaker clarifies that his TC2000 platform is not connected to his trading platforms, emphasizing that his trading process is entirely manual. He discusses the importance of setting stop-loss orders and maintaining positions until those stops are established.
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06:49:30
Technical Analysis
He advises against focusing on head and shoulders patterns in technical analysis, asserting that they are not reliable for making money. Instead, he suggests concentrating on channels and flag patterns, which he believes are more effective indicators for trading decisions.
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06:49:55
Head and Shoulders
The speaker emphasizes that understanding the Head and Shoulders pattern is not essential for achieving significant financial success, suggesting that one can ignore it entirely. They assert that 95% of Head and Shoulders patterns fail, and when someone mentions it, they should think of the shampoo brand instead. The speaker humorously advises that when hearing 'Head and Shoulders,' one should simply take a shower and focus on identifying good trading setups to make millions.
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06:51:45
Toku Setup
The discussion shifts to Toku, where the speaker notes that it is building higher lows and ideally should move sideways for three to five days to create a solid setup. They clarify that while Toku is not a bad setup, it requires patience as it builds a base, indicating that traders should wait for a better opportunity next week.
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06:53:54
Fastly Analysis
Fastly is highlighted as a stock on the speaker's watchlist, which has shown significant price action. The speaker notes that Fastly had a massive increase of almost 1000% followed by a 40% pullback, which is considered normal for such a volatile stock. They mention that Fastly is currently holding rising support and building higher lows, suggesting that if it breaks out over $81, it could be a good setup for a substantial position.
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06:55:34
Trading Strategy
The speaker concludes by discussing the importance of understanding price action and trading strategies. They mention that converting average price movements to percentage is crucial, regardless of whether one uses ATR or another metric. The session ends with the speaker thanking participants for their questions and indicating they will return the next day.
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